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The impact of investor sentiment on the German stock market

  • Finter, Philipp
  • Niessen-Ruenzi, Alexandra
  • Ruenzi, Stefan

This paper investigates whether investor sentiment can explain stock returns on the German stock market. Based on a principal component analysis, we construct a sentiment indicator that condenses information of several well-known sentiment proxies. We show that this indicator explains the return spread between sentiment stocks and stocks that are not sensitive to sentiment fluctuations. Specifically, stocks that are difficult to arbitrage and hard to value are sensitive to the indicator. However, we do not find much predictive power of sentiment for future stock returns. This is consistent with sentiment being of minor importance on the German stock market that is characterized by a low fraction of retail investors.

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Paper provided by University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR) in its series CFR Working Papers with number 10-03.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1003
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  1. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
  2. Francesca Cornelli & David Goldreich & Alexander Ljungqvist, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and Pre-IPO Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1187-1216, 06.
  3. Lee, Charles M. C. & Radhakrishna, Balkrishna, 2000. "Inferring investor behavior: Evidence from TORQ data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 83-111, May.
  4. Charles M.C. Lee & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2000. "Price Momentum and Trading Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2017-2069, October.
  5. Jason Bram & Sydney Ludvigson, 1997. "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure?: A sentiment index horse race," Research Paper 9708, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 13189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Dennis, Patrick & Mayhew, Stewart, 2002. "Risk-Neutral Skewness: Evidence from Stock Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(03), pages 471-493, September.
  8. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2000. "The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2219-2257, October.
  9. Faccio, Mara & Lang, Larry H. P., 2002. "The ultimate ownership of Western European corporations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 365-395, September.
  10. Hengelbrock, Jördis & Theissen, Erik & Westheide, Christian, 2011. "Market response to investor sentiment," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/02, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  11. Oehler, Andreas & Rummer, Marco & Smith, Peter N., 2004. "IPO Pricing and the Relative Importance of Investor Sentiment: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 26, University of Bamberg, Chair of Finance.
  12. Jeffrey Wurgler & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2002. "Does Arbitrage Flatten Demand Curves for Stocks?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 583-608, October.
  13. Alok Kumar & Charles M.C. Lee, 2006. "Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2451-2486, October.
  14. Andrea Frazzini & Owen A. Lamont, 2005. "Dumb Money: Mutual Fund Flows and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 11526, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Schmeling, Maik, 2006. "Institutional and Individual Sentiment: Smart Money and Noise Trader Risk," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-337, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  16. Charles Lee & Andrei Shleifer & Richard Thaler, 1990. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 3465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. John A. Doukas & Nikolaos T. Milonas, 2004. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-end Fund Puzzle: Out-of-sample Evidence," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(2), pages 235-266.
  18. Dorn, Daniel, 2009. "Does Sentiment Drive the Retail Demand for IPOs?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(01), pages 85-108, February.
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