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Published stock recommendations as investor sentiment in the near-term stock market

Author

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  • Nico Singer

    ()

  • Saskia Laser
  • Frank Dreher

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of published stock recommendations in print and online media as investor sentiment in the near-term German stock market. In line with extant literature on other sentiment measures, vector autoregressions reveal that past stock returns drive today’s sentiment, but not the other way around, and that sentiment is a powerful predictor of itself. In particular, sentiment based on printed analyst recommendations follows reversals, that is, when analysts face a stock market downturn, they see a buying opportunity and become optimistic. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Nico Singer & Saskia Laser & Frank Dreher, 2013. "Published stock recommendations as investor sentiment in the near-term stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1233-1249, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:45:y:2013:i:3:p:1233-1249
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-012-0649-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Finter, Philipp & Niessen-Ruenzi, Alexandra & Ruenzi, Stefan, 2010. "The impact of investor sentiment on the German stock market," CFR Working Papers 10-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    2. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    3. Kling, Gerhard & Gao, Lei, 2008. "Chinese institutional investors' sentiment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 374-387, October.
    4. Gregory W. Brown & Michael T. Cliff, 2005. "Investor Sentiment and Asset Valuation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 405-440, March.
    5. Schmeling, Maik, 2007. "Institutional and individual sentiment: Smart money and noise trader risk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 127-145.
    6. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
    7. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    8. Wang, Yaw-Huei & Keswani, Aneel & Taylor, Stephen J., 2006. "The relationships between sentiment, returns and volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 109-123.
    9. Brad Barber, 2001. "Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Security Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 531-563, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Analyst forecasts; Investor sentiment; Media content; VAR analysis; G17; C22;

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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