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Institutional and individual sentiment: Smart money and noise trader risk?

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  • Schmeling, Maik

Abstract

Using a new data set on investor sentiment we show that institutional and individual sentiment proxy for smart money and noise trader risk, respectively. First, using bias-adjusted long-horizon regressions, we document that institutional sentiment forecasts stock market returns at intermediate horizons correctly, whereas individuals consistently get the direction wrong. Second, VEC models show that institutional sentiment forecasts mean-reversion whereas individuals forecast trend continuation. Finally, institutional investors take into account expected individual sentiment when forming their expectations in a way that higher (lower) expected sentiment of individuals lowers (increases) institutional return forecasts. Individuals neglect the information contained in institutional sentiment.
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  • Schmeling, Maik, 2007. "Institutional and individual sentiment: Smart money and noise trader risk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 127-145.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:23:y:2007:i:1:p:127-145
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    Cited by:

    1. Jördis Hengelbrock & Erik Theissen & Christian Westheide, 2013. "Market Response to Investor Sentiment," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7-8), pages 901-917, September.
    2. Bormann, Sven-Kristjan, 2013. "Sentiment indices on financial markets: What do they measure?," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-58, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    3. Kim, Soo-Hyun & Kang, Hyoung-Goo, 2015. "Tactical Asset Allocation Using Investors' Sentiment," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 56(2), pages 177-195, December.
    4. Goodfellow, Christiane & Bohl, Martin T. & Gebka, Bartosz, 2009. "Together we invest? Individual and institutional investors' trading behaviour in Poland," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 212-221, September.
    5. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R., 2008. "Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: Longer-term, non-linear orientation on PPP," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 455-467.
    6. Leonel Arango Vásquez & Eduardo Alexander Duque Grisales, 2016. "Capital riesgo y dinero inteligente: aportes de valor no monetario," CONTEXTO (ARTICULOS SOBRE ECONOMÍA), UNIVERSIDAD EXTERNADO DE COLOMBIA, February.
    7. Chen, Haojun & Maher, Daniela, 2013. "On the predictive role of large futures trades for S&P500 index returns: An analysis of COT data as an informative trading signal," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 177-201.
    8. Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Sentiment dynamics and stock returns: the case of the German stock market," Kiel Working Papers 1470, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    9. Chou, Pin-Huang & Hsieh, Chia-Hsun & Shen, Carl Hsin-Han, 2016. "What explains the orange juice puzzle: Sentiment, smart money, or fundamentals?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 47-65.
    10. Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 394-408.
    11. Thomas Lux, 2011. "Sentiment dynamics and stock returns: the case of the German stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 663-679.
    12. Jasman Tuyon & Zamri Ahmad & Hylmee Matahir, 2016. "The Roles of Investor Sentiment in Malaysian Stock Market," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, pages 43-75.
    13. Gębka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "International herding: Does it differ across sectors?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 55-84.
    14. repec:eee:empfin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:212-239 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn & Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2016. "Does investor sentiment really matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 221-232.
    16. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter & Müller, Christoph, 2012. "Price adjustment to news with uncertain precision," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, pages 337-355.
    17. Joseph, Kissan & Babajide Wintoki, M. & Zhang, Zelin, 2011. "Forecasting abnormal stock returns and trading volume using investor sentiment: Evidence from online search," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1116-1127, October.
    18. Nico Singer & Saskia Laser & Frank Dreher, 2013. "Published stock recommendations as investor sentiment in the near-term stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 1233-1249.
    19. Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 394-408.
    20. Han, Xing & Li, Youwei, 2016. "Can Investor Sentiment Be a Momentum Time-Series Predictor? Evidence from China," RIEI Working Papers 2016-07, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Research Institute for Economic Integration, revised 12 Jan 2017.
    21. Menkhoff, Lukas & Suwanaporn, Chodechai, 2007. "10 Years after the crisis: Thailand's financial system reform," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, pages 4-20.
    22. Finter, Philipp & Niessen-Ruenzi, Alexandra & Ruenzi, Stefan, 2010. "The impact of investor sentiment on the German stock market," CFR Working Papers 10-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    23. Menkhoff, Lukas & Suwanaporn, Chodechai, 2007. "10 Years after the crisis: Thailand's financial system reform," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, pages 4-20.
    24. Singer, Nico & Dreher, Frank & Laser, Saskia, 2012. "Published stock recommendations as institutional investor sentiment in the near-term stock market," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 121, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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