IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/acctfi/v58y2019i5p1385-1411.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do stock bulletin board systems (BBS) contain useful information? A viewpoint of interaction between BBS quality and predicting ability

Author

Listed:
  • Xiong Xiong
  • Chunchun Luo
  • Ye Zhang
  • Shen Lin

Abstract

This study explores whether information on internet stock bulletin board systems (BBS) is valuable for stock return prediction, taking advantage of data derived from the biggest stock BBS in China. Using a text classification algorithm, we find the online messages significantly predict stock return with negligible R‐squared. However, we find that accuracy of individual BBS posts is below 50 percent and there is no distinction at prediction accuracy between high‐ and low‐quality stock BBS. Due to the autocorrelation of stock returns, we argue that BBS predicts stock returns because of its reflection on the simultaneous stock return rather than revelation on valuable information.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiong Xiong & Chunchun Luo & Ye Zhang & Shen Lin, 2019. "Do stock bulletin board systems (BBS) contain useful information? A viewpoint of interaction between BBS quality and predicting ability," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(5), pages 1385-1411, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:58:y:2019:i:5:p:1385-1411
    DOI: 10.1111/acfi.12448
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.12448
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/acfi.12448?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timm O. Sprenger & Andranik Tumasjan & Philipp G. Sandner & Isabell M. Welpe, 2014. "Tweets and Trades: the Information Content of Stock Microblogs," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(5), pages 926-957, November.
    2. Yugang Yin & Bin Tan, 2017. "Analyst’s ability, media selection and investor interests: evidence from China," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(1), pages 67-84, February.
    3. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    4. Xu, Hai-Chuan & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2018. "A weekly sentiment index and the cross-section of stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 135-139.
    5. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    6. Michael C. Jensen, 1968. "The Performance Of Mutual Funds In The Period 1945–1964," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(2), pages 389-416, May.
    7. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March.
    8. Hongbin Huang & Guanghui Jin & Jingnan Chen, 2016. "Investor sentiment, property nature and corporate investment efficiency," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(1), pages 56-76, February.
    9. Siganos, Antonios & Vagenas-Nanos, Evangelos & Verwijmeren, Patrick, 2014. "Facebook's daily sentiment and international stock markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 730-743.
    10. Depken II, Craig A. & Zhang, Ying, 2010. "Adverse selection and reputation in a world of cheap talk," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 548-558, November.
    11. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    12. Sanjiv R. Das & Mike Y. Chen, 2007. "Yahoo! for Amazon: Sentiment Extraction from Small Talk on the Web," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(9), pages 1375-1388, September.
    13. Yanjian Zhu & Zhaoying Wu & Hua Zhang & Jing Yu, 2017. "Media sentiment, institutional investors and probability of stock price crash: evidence from Chinese stock markets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(5), pages 1635-1670, December.
    14. Lee, Wayne Y. & Jiang, Christine X. & Indro, Daniel C., 2002. "Stock market volatility, excess returns, and the role of investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 2277-2299.
    15. Neal, Robert & Wheatley, Simon M., 1998. "Do Measures of Investor Sentiment Predict Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 523-547, December.
    16. Baker, Malcolm & Stein, Jeremy C., 2004. "Market liquidity as a sentiment indicator," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 271-299, June.
    17. Rui Li & Nan Li & Jiahui Li & Chongfeng Wu, 2018. "Short selling, margin buying and stock return in China market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(2), pages 477-501, June.
    18. Gregory W. Brown & Michael T. Cliff, 2005. "Investor Sentiment and Asset Valuation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 405-440, March.
    19. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    20. Thomas Lux, 2011. "Sentiment dynamics and stock returns: the case of the German stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 663-679, December.
    21. Daniel Houser & John Wooders, 2006. "Reputation in Auctions: Theory, and Evidence from eBay," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 353-369, June.
    22. Joseph, Kissan & Babajide Wintoki, M. & Zhang, Zelin, 2011. "Forecasting abnormal stock returns and trading volume using investor sentiment: Evidence from online search," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1116-1127, October.
    23. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
    24. Ying Zhang, 2009. "Determinants of Poster Reputation on Internet Stock Message Boards," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 1(2), pages 114-121, June.
    25. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    26. Werner Antweiler & Murray Z. Frank, 2004. "Is All That Talk Just Noise? The Information Content of Internet Stock Message Boards," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1259-1294, June.
    27. Robert E. Litan & Alice M. Rivlin, 2001. "Projecting the Economic Impact of the Internet," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 313-317, May.
    28. Xinyun Chen & Yan Liu & Tao Zeng, 2017. "Does the T + 1 rule really reduce speculation? Evidence from Chinese Stock Index ETF," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(5), pages 1287-1313, December.
    29. Michael Lemmon & Evgenia Portniaguina, 2006. "Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1499-1529.
    30. Kim, Soon-Ho & Kim, Dongcheol, 2014. "Investor sentiment from internet message postings and the predictability of stock returns," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 708-729.
    31. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "The Internet and the Investor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 41-54, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yasheng Chen & Xian Huang & Zhuojun Wu, 2023. "From natural language to accounting entries using a natural language processing method," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(4), pages 3781-3795, December.
    2. Na, Haejung & Kim, Soonho, 2021. "Predicting stock prices based on informed traders’ activities using deep neural networks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    3. Yanmei Sun & Xiaoting Sun & Weixing Wu, 2021. "Who detects corporate fraud under the thriving of the new media? Evidence from Chinese‐listed firms," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(S1), pages 1313-1343, April.
    4. Han, Mengrui & Ying, Qianwei & Huang, Li, 2023. "Firms’ delayed replies and investor confidence: Evidence from M&A comment letters in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Wei & Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua & Teglio, Andrea, 2016. "Daily happiness and stock returns: Some international evidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 460(C), pages 201-209.
    2. Ung, Sze Nie & Gebka, Bartosz & Anderson, Robert D.J., 2023. "Is sentiment the solution to the risk–return puzzle? A (cautionary) note," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    3. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Bonsu, Christiana Osei & Karikari, Nana Kwasi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2022. "The effects of public sentiments and feelings on stock market behavior: Evidence from Australia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 443-472.
    4. Zhang, Hang & Tsai, Wei-Che & Weng, Pei-Shih & Tsai, Pin-Chieh, 2023. "Overnight returns and investor sentiment: Further evidence from the Taiwan stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua & Xue, Mei & Zhang, Wei, 2017. "Daily happiness and stock returns: The case of Chinese company listed in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 496-501.
    6. Mahmoudi, Nader & Docherty, Paul & Melia, Adrian, 2022. "Firm-level investor sentiment and corporate announcement returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    7. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Farid, Saqib & Faruk, Balli & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2020. "Can happiness predict future volatility in stock markets?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Xiong, Xiong & Meng, Yongqiang & Joseph, Nathan Lael & Shen, Dehua, 2020. "Stock mispricing, hard-to-value stocks and the influence of internet stock message boards," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    9. Seok, Sang Ik & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Firm-specific investor sentiment and daily stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    10. Wang, Wenzhao & Su, Chen & Duxbury, Darren, 2022. "The conditional impact of investor sentiment in global stock markets: A two-channel examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    11. Zhang, Yongjie & Zhang, Yuzhao & Shen, Dehua & Zhang, Wei, 2017. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Evidence from provincial TV audience rating in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 466(C), pages 288-294.
    12. Kim, Soon-Ho & Kim, Dongcheol, 2014. "Investor sentiment from internet message postings and the predictability of stock returns," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 708-729.
    13. Al-Nasseri, Alya & Menla Ali, Faek & Tucker, Allan, 2021. "Investor sentiment and the dispersion of stock returns: Evidence based on the social network of investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Aissia, Dorsaf Ben, 2016. "Home and foreign investor sentiment and the stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 71-77.
    15. Yang, Yan & Copeland, Laurence, 2014. "The Effects of Sentiment on Market Return and Volatility and The Cross-Sectional Risk Premium of Sentiment-affected Volatility," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2014/12, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    16. Anand, Abhinav & Basu, Sankarshan & Pathak, Jalaj & Thampy, Ashok, 2021. "The impact of sentiment on emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 161-177.
    17. Szymon Lis, 2022. "Investor Sentiment in Asset Pricing Models: A Review," Working Papers 2022-14, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    18. Corredor, Pilar & Ferrer, Elena & Santamaria, Rafael, 2014. "Is cognitive bias really present in analyst forecasts? The role of investor sentiment," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 824-837.
    19. Fang, Hao & Chung, Chien-Ping & Lu, Yang-Cheng & Lee, Yen-Hsien & Wang, Wen-Hao, 2021. "The impacts of investors' sentiments on stock returns using fintech approaches," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    20. Berger, Dave & Turtle, H.J., 2012. "Cross-sectional performance and investor sentiment in a multiple risk factor model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1107-1121.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:58:y:2019:i:5:p:1385-1411. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaanzea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.