IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

IPO Pricing and the Relative Importance of Investor Sentiment: Evidence from Germany

  • Marco Rummer

    (Bamberg University)

  • Andreas Oehler

    (Bamberg University)

  • Peter N. Smith

    (University of York)

The underpricing phenomenon of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) has been widely studied across different stock markets around the world and has often been explained to be as a result of asymmetrically distributed information and ex-ante uncertainty. However, as Ritter and Welch (2002) argue to the contrary, these theories are unlikely to explain the persistent pattern of high initial returns during the first trading day as well as other features of the returns data. This paper add some further alternative explanations to the traditional theory while focusing on German IPOs during the 1997 to 2001 period and covering a sample of 410 firms. Using time series regressions the cyclical behaviour of the issue activity is examined and we report, using VAR analysis, that lagged underpricing and IPO volume influence the decision to go public. The cross-sectional regression analysis, using both censored and uncensored data, shows that the initial returns are mainly influenced by investor sentiment and demand, and less by ex-ante uncertainty, especially during the dot-com boom.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://repec.org/mmfc04/62.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 with number 62.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 17 Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc04:62
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.essex.ac.uk/afm/mmf/index.html

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Rock, Kevin, 1986. "Why new issues are underpriced," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 187-212.
  2. Mark Grinblatt & Chuan Yang Hwang, . "Signalling and the Pricing of Unseasoned New Issues," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 01-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  3. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  4. Lawrence M. Benveniste & Alexander Ljungqvist & William J. Wilhelm & Xiaoyun Yu, 2003. "Evidence of Information Spillovers in the Production of Investment Banking Services," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 577-608, 04.
  5. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1995. " The New Issues Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-51, March.
  6. Alexander Ljungqvist & Vikram Nanda & Rajdeep Singh, 2006. "Hot Markets, Investor Sentiment, and IPO Pricing," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1667-1702, July.
  7. Jay Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations," NBER Working Papers 8805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Richard B. Carter & Frederick H. Dark & Ajai K. Singh, 1998. "Underwriter Reputation, Initial Returns, and the Long-Run Performance of IPO Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 285-311, 02.
  9. Allen, Franklin & Faulhaber, Gerald R., 1989. "Signalling by underpricing in the IPO market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 303-323, August.
  10. Michelle Lowry & G. William Schwert, 2000. "IPO Market Cycles: Bubbles or Sequential Learning?," NBER Working Papers 7935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Dorn, Daniel, 2009. "Does Sentiment Drive the Retail Demand for IPOs?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(01), pages 85-108, February.
  12. Hoffmann-Burchardi, Ulrike, 2001. "Clustering of initial public offerings, information revelation and underpricing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 353-383, February.
  13. Francesca Cornelli, 2001. "Bookbuilding and Strategic Allocation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2337-2369, December.
  14. Reilly, Frank K., 1973. "Further Evidence on Short-Run Results for New Issue Investors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(01), pages 83-90, January.
  15. Michel Habib & Alexander Ljungqvist, 1999. "Underpricing and Entrepreneurial Wealth Losses in IPOs: Theory and Evidence," OFRC Working Papers Series 1999fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  16. Welch, Ivo, 1992. " Sequential Sales, Learning, and Cascades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 695-732, June.
  17. Ljungqvist, Alexander P., 1997. "Pricing initial public offerings: Further evidence from Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1309-1320, July.
  18. Logue, Dennis E, et al, 2002. "What Is Special about the Roles of Underwriter Reputation and Market Activities in Initial Public Offerings?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 213-43, April.
  19. Hamao, Yasushi & Packer, Frank & Ritter, Jay R., 2000. "Institutional affiliation and the role of venture capital: Evidence from initial public offerings in Japan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 529-558, October.
  20. Grinblatt, Mark & Hwang, Chuan Yang, 1989. " Signalling and the Pricing of New Issues," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 393-420, June.
  21. Laura Bottazzi & Marco Da Rin, . "Europe’s ‘New’ Stock Markets," Working Papers 218, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  22. Sherman, Ann E. & Titman, Sheridan, 2002. "Building the IPO order book: underpricing and participation limits with costly information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 3-29, July.
  23. Reena Aggarwal & Pat Conroy, 2000. "Price Discovery in Initial Public Offerings and the Role of the Lead Underwriter," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2903-2922, December.
  24. Tim Loughran & Jay Ritter, 2004. "Why Has IPO Underpricing Changed Over Time?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 33(3), Fall.
  25. Bradley, Daniel J. & Jordan, Bradford D., 2002. "Partial Adjustment to Public Information and IPO Underpricing," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(04), pages 595-616, December.
  26. Merton, Robert C, 1987. " A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 483-510, July.
  27. Randolph P. Beatty & Jay R. Ritter, . "Investment Banking, Reputation and the Underpricing of Initial Public Offerings," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 2-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  28. Rajan, Raghuram & Servaes, Henri, 1997. " Analyst Following of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 507-29, June.
  29. Ibbotson, Roger G., 1975. "Price performance of common stock new issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 235-272, September.
  30. Koh, Francis & Walter, Terry, 1989. "A direct test of Rock's model of the pricing of unseasoned issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 251-272, August.
  31. Amihud, Yakov & Hauser, Shmuel & Kirsh, Amir, 2003. "Allocations, adverse selection, and cascades in IPOs: Evidence from the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 137-158, April.
  32. Jeffrey A. Wurgler & Malcolm P. Baker, 2001. "Market Timing and Capital Structure," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm181, Yale School of Management.
  33. Carter, Richard B & Manaster, Steven, 1990. " Initial Public Offerings and Underwriter Reputation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1045-67, September.
  34. Kim, Moonchul & Ritter, Jay R., 1999. "Valuing IPOs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 409-437, September.
  35. Beatty, Randolph P & Welch, Ivo, 1996. "Issuer Expenses and Legal Liability in Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 545-602, October.
  36. Laurie Krigman & Wayne H. Shaw & Kent L. Womack, 1999. "The Persistence of IPO Mispricing and the Predictive Power of Flipping," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 1015-1044, 06.
  37. William Wilhelm & Alexander Ljungqvist, 2002. "IPO Pricing in the Dot-com Bubble," Economics Series Working Papers 2002-FE-07, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  38. Tim Loughran & Jay R. Ritter, 2002. "Why Don't Issuers Get Upset About Leaving Money on the Table in IPOs?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 413-444, March.
  39. Lee, Philip J. & Taylor, Stephen L. & Walter, Terry S., 1999. "IPO Underpricing Explanations: Implications from Investor Application and Allocation Schedules," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(04), pages 425-444, December.
  40. Hanley, Kathleen Weiss, 1993. "The underpricing of initial public offerings and the partial adjustment phenomenon," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 231-250, October.
  41. Lerner, Joshua, 1994. "Venture capitalists and the decision to go public," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 293-316, June.
  42. Stoll, Hans R. & Curley, Anthony J., 1970. "Small Business and the New Issues Market for Equities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(03), pages 309-322, September.
  43. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R. & Rydqvist, Kristian, 1995. "Initial public offerings: International insights," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 139-140, May.
  44. Kunz, Roger M. & Aggarwal, Reena, 1994. "Why initial public offerings are underpriced: Evidence from Switzerland," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 705-723, September.
  45. Annemarie Sapusek, 2000. "Benchmark-Sensitivity Of Ipo Long-Run Performance: An Empirical Study For Germany," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 52(4), pages 374-405, October.
  46. Brounen, Dirk & Eichholtz, Piet, 2002. "Initial Public Offerings: Evidence from the British, French and Swedish Property Share Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1-2), pages 103-17, Jan.-Marc.
  47. Benveniste, Lawrence M. & Wilhelm, William J., 1990. "A comparative analysis of IPO proceeds under alternative regulatory environments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 173-207.
  48. Richard Stehle & Olaf Ehrhardt & René Przyborowsky, 2000. "Long-run stock performance of German initial public offerings and seasoned equity issues," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 6(2), pages 173-196.
  49. Reena Aggarwal, 2000. "Stabilization Activities by Underwriters after Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1075-1103, 06.
  50. Lowry, Michelle, 2003. "Why does IPO volume fluctuate so much?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 3-40, January.
  51. Benveniste, Lawrence M. & Spindt, Paul A., 1989. "How investment bankers determine the offer price and allocation of new issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 343-361.
  52. Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, June.
  53. Baron, David P, 1982. " A Model of the Demand for Investment Banking Advising and Distribution Services for New Issues," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 955-76, September.
  54. Wasserfallen, Walter & Wittleder, Christian, 1994. "Pricing initial public offerings: Evidence from Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 1505-1517, August.
  55. Katrina Ellis & Roni Michaely & Maureen O'Hara, 2000. "When the Underwriter Is the Market Maker: An Examination of Trading in the IPO Aftermarket," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1039-1074, 06.
  56. Spatt, Chester & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1991. "Preplay Communication, Participation Restrictions, and Efficiency in Initial Public Offerings," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 709-26.
  57. Chemmanur, Thomas J, 1993. " The Pricing of Initial Public Offerings: A Dynamic Model with Information Production," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 285-304, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc04:62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.