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IPO Market Cycles: Bubbles or Sequential Learning?

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  • Michelle Lowry
  • G. William Schwert

Abstract

We examine the strong cycles in the number of initial public offerings (IPOs) and in the average initial returns realized by investors who participated in the IPOs. At the aggregate level, initial returns are predictably related to past initial returns and also to future IPO volume from 1960-1997. To understand these patterns, we use firm-level data from 1985-97 to model the initial return. Our results show that aggregate IPO cycles occur because of the time it takes to complete an IPO, the clustering of similar types of IPOs in time, and information spillovers among IPOs.

Suggested Citation

  • Michelle Lowry & G. William Schwert, 2000. "IPO Market Cycles: Bubbles or Sequential Learning?," NBER Working Papers 7935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7935
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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