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Initial public offerings in hot and cold markets

Author

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  • Jean Helwege
  • J. Nellie Liang

Abstract

Asymmetric information models characterize hot IPO markets as periods when better quality firms have an incentive to issue equity, and cold markets when the lemons premium associated with equity is too high to draw in many issuers. Recent empirical evidence, however, suggests that firms that issue in hot markets are a major source of stock price underperformance of equity issuers. We investigate these opposing views with data on IPO firms that issued in 1983, a hot market, and 1988, a cold market. We find that the two sets of firms have similar operating performance, but stock returns are worse for firms that went public in the hot market. Our results are largely consistent with investor overoptimism in hot markets, but not with the asymmetric information models.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Helwege & J. Nellie Liang, 1996. "Initial public offerings in hot and cold markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:96-34
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. " Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-1578, December.
    2. George W. Fenn & J. Nellie Liang & Stephen D. Prowse, 1995. "The economics of the private equity market," Staff Studies 168, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Lucas, Deborah J & McDonald, Robert L, 1990. " Equity Issues and Stock Price Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1019-1043, September.
    4. Jain, Bharat A & Kini, Omesh, 1994. " The Post-Issue Operating Performance of IPO Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1699-1726, December.
    5. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1997. " The Operating Performance of Firms Conducting Seasoned Equity Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1823-1850, December.
    6. Bayless, Mark & Chaplinsky, Susan, 1996. " Is There a Window of Opportunity for Seasoned Equity Issuance?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 253-278, March.
    7. Ibbotson, Roger G & Jaffe, Jeffrey F, 1975. ""Hot Issue" Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1027-1042, September.
    8. Allen, Franklin & Faulhaber, Gerald R., 1989. "Signalling by underpricing in the IPO market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 303-323, August.
    9. Lerner, Joshua, 1994. "Venture capitalists and the decision to go public," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 293-316, June.
    10. repec:hrv:faseco:30721347 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Grinblatt, Mark & Hwang, Chuan Yang, 1989. " Signalling and the Pricing of New Issues," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 393-420, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stolpe, Michael, 2004. "Non-market interaction in primary equity markets: evidence from France and Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1211, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Salim Chahine & Jean-Pierre Mathieu, 2003. "Valorisation stratégique par contextes de valeur : le cas des introductions sur le nouveau marché," Post-Print hal-00765190, HAL.
    3. Rotheli, Tobias F., 2005. "The illusion of over-optimism in survey data: the case of manufacturers' selling prices," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 151-159, March.
    4. Alexander Ljungqvist & Vikram Nanda & Rajdeep Singh, 2006. "Hot Markets, Investor Sentiment, and IPO Pricing," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1667-1702, July.
    5. Richard J. Rosen, 2006. "Merger Momentum and Investor Sentiment: The Stock Market Reaction to Merger Announcements," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(2), pages 987-1017, March.
    6. Salim Chahine & Jean-Pierre Mathieu, 2003. "Valorisation stratégique par contextes de valeur:le cas des introductions sur le Nouveau marché," Revue Finance Contrôle Stratégie, revues.org, vol. 6(2), pages 91-114, June.
    7. Michelle Lowry & G. William Schwert, 2002. "IPO Market Cycles: Bubbles or Sequential Learning?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1171-1200, June.
    8. Hoffmann-Burchardi, Ulrike, 2001. "Clustering of initial public offerings, information revelation and underpricing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 353-383, February.
    9. Brailsford, Tim & Heaney, Richard & Shi, Jing, 2004. "Modelling the behaviour of the new issue market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 119-132.
    10. Antonios Antoniou & Jie Guo & Dimitris Petmezas, 2008. "Merger momentum and market valuations: the UK evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(17), pages 1411-1423.

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    Keywords

    Stock - Prices;

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