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Managerial sentiment, consumer confidence and sector returns

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  • Salhin, Ahmed
  • Sherif, Mohamed
  • Jones, Edward

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between managerial sentiment and sector returns. Using UK monthly data from January 1985 to December 2014 and a sample of consumer and business confidence indicators provided by the European Commission, we provide novel evidence on how managerial and consumer sentiment indicators affect stock returns. We find no support for consumer confidence as a predictor of stock returns. However, managerial sentiment shows a significant impact on aggregate market and sector return indices. Furthermore, we find that parameter estimates for sector groupings are not consistent, implying that the sentiment-return relationship differs across sectors. We also find parameters are sensitive to industry characteristics. Importantly, the overall sentiment-return relationship is dominated by sentiment associated with manufacturing firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Salhin, Ahmed & Sherif, Mohamed & Jones, Edward, 2016. "Managerial sentiment, consumer confidence and sector returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 24-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:47:y:2016:i:c:p:24-38
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2016.06.009
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    Cited by:

    1. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Oliveira, Diego S.P., 2019. "Firms' confidence and Okun's law in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 98-107.
    2. Qadan, Mahmoud, 2019. "Risk appetite, idiosyncratic volatility and expected returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Raquel M. Gaspar & Xu Jiaming, 2023. "Consumer Confidence and Stock Markets' Returns," Working Papers REM 2023/0292, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Jiang, Dequan & Li, Weiping & Shen, Yongjian & Yu, Shuangli, 2022. "Does air pollution affect earnings management? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Stock market reactions to domestic sentiment: Panel CS-ARDL evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Rilwan Sakariyahu & Mohamed Sherif & Audrey Paterson & Eleni Chatzivgeri, 2021. "Sentiment‐Apt investors and UK sector returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3321-3351, July.
    7. Chaohai Shen & Bingquan Fang & Xiaolan Zhou, 2022. "The Relationship between Corporate Sustainable Development Performance, Investor Sentiment, and Managerial Overconfidence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-19, August.
    8. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xiong, Lu & Zhu, You & Xie, Chi & Foglia, Matteo, 2022. "Multilayer network analysis of investor sentiment and stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Sakariyahu, Rilwan & Johan, Sofia & Lawal, Rodiat & Paterson, Audrey & Chatzivgeri, Eleni, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness between investors’ sentiment and asset prices: A comparison between major markets in Europe and USA," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    10. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Eduardo Schirmer Finn, 2022. "Can credibility offset electricity price effect on business confidence? An empirical investigation from a large emerging economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(11), pages 1229-1242, March.
    11. Ana Escribano & Francisco Jareño & Jose Ángel Cano, 2023. "Study of the leading European construction companies using risk factor models," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3386-3402, July.
    12. Albaity, Mohamed & Shah, Syed Faisal & Al-Tamimi, Hussein A.Hassan & Rahman, Mahfuzur & Thangavelu, Shanmugam, 2023. "Country risk and bank returns: Evidence from MENA countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    13. Zorio-Grima, Ana & Merello, Paloma, 2020. "Consumer confidence: Causality links with subjective and objective information sources," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    14. Zaremba, Adam & Szyszka, Adam & Long, Huaigang & Zawadka, Dariusz, 2020. "Business sentiment and the cross-section of global equity returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    15. Liang, Chao & Tang, Linchun & Li, Yan & Wei, Yu, 2020. "Which sentiment index is more informative to forecast stock market volatility? Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Managerial sentiment; Consumer confidence; Investor sentiment; UK sector returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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