IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/1999-60.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Consumer sentiment and the stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Ward Otoo

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between movements in consumer sentiment and stock prices. At the aggregate level, the two share a strong contemporaneous relationship: an increase in equity values boosts sentiment. However, I examined the nature of the relationship between the two. Does an increase in stock prices raise aggregate sentiment because people are wealthier or because they use movements in stock prices as an indicator of future economic activity and potential labor income growth? Using individual observations from the Michigan survey I found results more consistent with the view that people use movements in equity prices as a leading indicator. Although the findings do not rule out a traditional wealth effect, they do raise some questions about the causal role of wealth in aggregate spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Ward Otoo, 1999. "Consumer sentiment and the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-60
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/1999/199960/199960abs.html
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/1999/199960/199960pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Randall Morck & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 157-216.
    2. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    3. Maria Ward Otoo, 1997. "The sources of worker anxiety: evidence from the Michigan survey," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Martha Starr-McCluer, 2002. "Stock Market Wealth and Consumer Spending," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 69-79, January.
    5. James M. Poterba & Andrew A. Samwick, 1995. "Stock Ownership Patterns, Stock Market Fluctuations, and Consumption," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 295-372.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market ; Stock - Prices ; Consumer behavior;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1999-60. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Franz Osorio). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.