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A Critique on Turkish Real Estate Market

Author

Listed:
  • Sukru Binay

    (The Central Bank of Turkey)

  • Ferhan Salman

    (The Central Bank of Turkey)

Abstract

We discuss issues of real estate price bubble, the extent of wealth effects, affordability, financial deepening and credit market risks. Our simulations indicate that given current wealth levels, cost of credit and maturity, average homes are not affordable by average consumers. The market requires further reduction in the cost of credit and extension of maturity to manage a significant demand shift in the real estate market. We present evidence that Turkey’s credit markets are shallow to result in a banking crisis emerging from real estate credits. Finally, we document evidence in favor of the presence of wealth effects on consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Sukru Binay & Ferhan Salman, 2007. "A Critique on Turkish Real Estate Market," Working Papers 2008/8, Turkish Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:tek:wpaper:2008/8
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    File URL: http://www.tek.org.tr/dosyalar/critique_6may2008.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
    2. Randall Morck & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 157-216.
    3. Alexander Ludwig & Torsten M Sloek, 2002. "The Impact of Changes in Stock Prices and House Priceson Consumption in OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/1, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Engelhardt, Gary V., 1996. "House prices and home owner saving behavior," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 313-336, June.
    5. James M. Poterba & Andrew A. Samwick, 1995. "Stock Ownership Patterns, Stock Market Fluctuations, and Consumption," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 295-372.
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    Cited by:

    1. Erdem Basci & Özgür Özel & Cagri Sarikaya, 2008. "The monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey: new developments," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 475-499 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Coskun, Yener, 2010. "Global Financial Crisis and Mortgage Finance and Valuation Problems: An Assesment of the US and Turkish Mortgage Systems," MPRA Paper 35301, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Coskun, Yener, 2010. "An Analysis of the Strenghts and Weaknesses of the Turkish Real Estate Market," MPRA Paper 28361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Turkey; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 07/364, International Monetary Fund.

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