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Beyond Fundamentals: Investor Sentiment and Exchange Rate Forecasting

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  • Sebastian Heiden
  • Christian Klein
  • Bernhard Zwergel

Abstract

This paper examines the relation between investor sentiment and exchange rate movements. We use a unique dataset of private and institutional investors’ sentiment and discover that institutional sentiment significantly predicts returns over medium†term horizons in the EUR/USD market. While institutional investors seem to correctly identify the medium†run direction of this market, private investors’ sentiment emerges as a contrarian indicator at first sight, however, its predictive power fluctuates heavily and is sample dependent. Our results point towards local investors having an informational advantage in exchange rate forecasting. We test for economic relevance with a simple but realistic out†of†sample trading strategy which yields significant results.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Heiden & Christian Klein & Bernhard Zwergel, 2013. "Beyond Fundamentals: Investor Sentiment and Exchange Rate Forecasting," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(3), pages 558-578, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:19:y:2013:i:3:p:558-578
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-036X.2010.00593.x
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    Cited by:

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    2. Xing Yu & Yanyan Li & Xinxin Wang, 2024. "RMB exchange rate forecasting using machine learning methods: Can multimodel select powerful predictors?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 644-660, April.
    3. Panagiotis Panagiotou & Xu Jiang & Angel Gavilan, 2023. "The determinants of liquidity commonality in the Euro-area sovereign bond market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(10), pages 1144-1186, July.
    4. Chi-Wei Su & Xu-Yu Cai & Ran Tao, 2020. "Can Stock Investor Sentiment Be Contagious in China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    5. Angelos J. Doukas & Jie (Michael) Guo & Herbert Y. T. Lam & Sarah (Hong) Xiao, 2016. "Media Endorsements of New Product Announcements: A New Marketing Strategy," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), pages 394-426, June.
    6. Frederik Kunze, 2020. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 313-333, March.
    7. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    8. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Kyei, Clement Kweku & Gupta, Rangan & Olson, Eric, 2021. "Investor sentiment and dollar-pound exchange rate returns: Evidence from over a century of data using a cross-quantilogram approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    9. Yensen Ni & Min-Yuh Day & Paoyu Huang, 2020. "Trading stocks following sharp movements in the USDX, GBP/USD, and USD/CNY," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-17, December.

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