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Small levels of predictability and large economic gains


  • Xu, Yexiao


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  • Xu, Yexiao, 2004. "Small levels of predictability and large economic gains," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 247-275, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:11:y:2004:i:2:p:247-275

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
    2. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1988. "Time-Variation in Expected Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(4), pages 409-425, October.
    3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    5. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    7. J. Hirshleifer, 1975. "Speculation and Equilibrium: Information, Risk, and Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 89(4), pages 519-542.
    8. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1996. " On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset-Allocation Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 385-424, June.
    9. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 175-205.
    10. Lo, Andrew W. & Craig MacKinlay, A., 1990. "An econometric analysis of nonsynchronous trading," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 181-211.
    11. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
    12. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Speculative Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 529-546.
    13. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    14. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Optimal forecast combinations under general loss functions and forecast error distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 47-79, September.
    15. McDonald, James B. & Xu, Yexiao J., 1995. "A generalization of the beta distribution with applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 133-152.
    16. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    17. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, February.
    18. Kaul, Gautam & Nimalendran, M., 1990. "Price reversals *1: Bid-ask errors or market overreaction?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 67-93.
    19. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1989. "Mean Reversion in Short-Horizon Expected Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 225-240.
    20. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    21. Kirby, Chris, 1997. "Measuring the Predictable Variation in Stock and Bond Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 579-630.
    22. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
    23. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bätje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2016. "Predicting the equity premium via its components," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145789, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Khurshid M. Kiani, 2016. "On Modelling and Forecasting Predictable Components in European Stock Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(3), pages 487-502, October.
    3. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2014. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1772-1791, July.
    4. KIANI, Khurshid M., 2007. "Determination Of Volatility And Mean Returns: An Evidence From An Emerging Stock Market," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(1), pages 103-118.
    5. McPherson, Matthew Q. & Palardy, Joseph, 2007. "Are international stock returns predictable?: An examination of linear and non-linear predictability using generalized spectral tests," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 452-464, December.
    6. Yufeng Han, 2010. "On the Economic Value of Return Predictability," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(1), pages 1-33, May.
    7. Kiani, Khurshid M., 2011. "Relationship between portfolio diversification and value at risk: Empirical evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 443-459.
    8. Tom Engsted, 2009. "Statistical vs. Economic Significance in Economics and Econometrics: Further comments on McCloskey & Ziliak," CREATES Research Papers 2009-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    9. Hai Lin & Daniel Quill & Henk Berkman, 2016. "Information diffusion and the predictability of New Zealand stock market returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 56(3), pages 749-785, September.
    10. Khurshid Kiani, 2010. "Predictable Signals in Excess Returns: Evidence from Non-Gaussian State Space Models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1217-1232.
    11. Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    12. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2006. "Testing for predictability in equity returns for European transition markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 56-78, March.
    13. Barras, Laurent, 2007. "International conditional asset allocation under specification uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 443-464, September.
    14. Bryan Stanhouse & Duane Stock, 2008. "Managing the risk of loan prepayments and the optimal structure of short term lending rates," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 197-215, March.
    15. Goh, Jeremy C. & Jiang, Fuwei & Tu, Jun & Wang, Yuchen, 2013. "Can US economic variables predict the Chinese stock market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 69-87.

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