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Short-term returns and the predictability of Finnish stock returns

  • Mika Vaihekoski

    (Swedish School of Economics and Business Administration, Helsinki)

The predictability of Finnish stock returns is studied using the framework of Ferson and Harvey (1993). We employ a conditional asset pricing model where risk premia and risk sensitivities are conditioned on a range of financial information variables. In particular, we study the effect of the return interval on the predictability of short-term stock returns. Using daily, weekly, and monthly returns on Finnish size and industry-sorted portfolios, we find that the predictability of returns increases with the length of the return interval, but so does the power of the conditional pricing model to explain the predictability. Consistent with the earlier results, we report that the time variation in risk premium accounts for most of the predictability. However, the results also show a sizable positive interaction between the beta and the risk premium which seems to increase for smaller companies.

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File URL: http://taloustieteellinenyhdistys.fi/images/stories/fep/f1998_1b.pdf
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Article provided by Finnish Economic Association in its journal Finnish Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 11 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 (Spring)
Pages: 19-36

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Handle: RePEc:fep:journl:v:11:y:1998:i:1:p:19-36
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  1. Campbell, John, 1987. "Stock Returns and the Term Structure," Scholarly Articles 3207699, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Teppo Martikainen, 1991. "The impact of infrequent trading on betas based on daily, weekly and monthly return intervals : empirical evidence with Finnish data," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 52-64, Spring.
  3. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
  4. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1996. "Fundamental Determinants of National Equity Market Returns: A Perspective on Conditional Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 5860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Kirby, Chris, 1997. "Measuring the Predictable Variation in Stock and Bond Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 579-630.
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  9. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
  10. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
  11. Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 4621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Virtanen, Ilkka & Yli-Olli, Paavo, 1987. "Forecasting stock market prices in a thin security market," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-155.
  14. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
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  16. Ferson, Wayne E & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1995. "Do Arbitrage Pricing Models Explain the Predictability of Stock Returns?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 309-49, July.
  17. Gabriel Hawawini & Donald B. Keim, . "On the Predictability of Common Stock Returns: World-Wide Evidence (Revision of 23-92) (Reprint 054)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 22-94, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  18. Gabriel Hawawini & Donald B. Keim, . "On the Predictability of Common Stock Returns: World-Wide Evidence (Revised: 22-94)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 23-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  19. Pettengill, Glenn N. & Sundaram, Sridhar & Mathur, Ike, 1995. "The Conditional Relation between Beta and Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 101-116, March.
  20. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
  21. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, 06.
  22. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1993. "Is the ex ante risk premium always positive? *1: A new approach to testing conditional asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 387-408, December.
  23. Zhou, Guofu, 1994. "Analytical GMM Tests: Asset Pricing with Time-Varying Risk Premiums," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 687-709.
  24. Harvey, Campbell R., 1989. "Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317.
  25. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. " Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1201-28, September.
  26. Gibbons, Michael R. & Ferson, Wayne, 1985. "Testing asset pricing models with changing expectations and an unobservable market portfolio," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 217-236, June.
  27. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-66.
  28. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
  29. Dumas, Bernard & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. " The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 445-79, June.
  30. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
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