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On the Predictability of Common Stock Returns: World-Wide Evidence (Revised: 22-94)

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  • Gabriel Hawawini
  • Donald B. Keim

Abstract

Recent empirical findings suggest that equity returns are predictable. These findings document persistent cross-sectional and time series patterns in returns that are not predicted by extant theory, and are, therefore, often classified as anomalies. In this paper we synthesize the evidence on predictable returns, focusing on the subset of the findings whose existence has proved most robust with respect to both time and the number of stock markets in which they have been observed.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Hawawini & Donald B. Keim, "undated". "On the Predictability of Common Stock Returns: World-Wide Evidence (Revised: 22-94)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 23-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:pennfi:23-92
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    Cited by:

    1. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2003. "Momentum and Turnover: Evidence from the German Stock Market," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 55(2), pages 108-135, April.
    2. van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2011. "Is size dead? A review of the size effect in equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3263-3274.
    3. Shiller, Robert J., 1999. "Human behavior and the efficiency of the financial system," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1305-1340 Elsevier.
    4. Horowitz, Joel L. & Loughran, Tim & Savin, N. E., 2000. "The disappearing size effect," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 83-100, March.
    5. Rodríguez López, Rosa & Nieto, Belén, 2004. "Modelos de valoración de activos condicionales: un panorama comparativo con datos españoles," DEE - Documentos de Trabajo. Economía de la Empresa. DB db040202, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    6. Gabriel Hawawini & Donald B. Keim, "undated". "The Cross Section of Common Stock Returns: A Review of the Evidence and Some New Findings," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 7-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    7. Driesprong, Gerben & Jacobsen, Ben & Maat, Benjamin, 2008. "Striking oil: Another puzzle?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 307-327, August.
    8. Rangvid, Jesper, 2001. "Predicting returns and changes in real activity: evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 309-329, December.
    9. Sven Bouman & Ben Jacobsen, 2002. "The Halloween Indicator, "Sell in May and Go Away": Another Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1618-1635, December.
    10. Rodriguez, Rosa & Restoy, Fernando & Pena, J. Ignacio, 2002. "Can output explain the predictability and volatility of stock returns?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 163-182, April.
    11. Spronk, Jaap & Hallerbach, Winfried, 1997. "Financial modelling: Where to go? With an illustration for portfolio management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 113-125, May.
    12. Cemal Berk O˛uzsoy & Sibel Guven, 2003. "Stock returns and the day-of-the-week effect in i-super-˙stanbul Stock Exchange," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(8), pages 959-971.
    13. Mika Vaihekoski, 1998. "Short-term returns and the predictability of Finnish stock returns," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 19-36, Spring.
    14. Liew, Jimmy & Vassalou, Maria, 1999. "Can Book-to-Market, Size and Momentum Be Risk Factors That Predict Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 2180, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Hallerbach, Winfried & Ning, Haikun & Soppe, Aloy & Spronk, Jaap, 2004. "A framework for managing a portfolio of socially responsible investments," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 517-529, March.
    16. Kuo, Weiyu & E. Satchell, Stephen, 2001. "Global equity styles and industry effects: the pre-eminence of value relative to size," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, March.
    17. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    18. Belén Nieto & Rosa Rodriguez, 2005. "Modelos de valoración de activos condicionales: Un panorama comparativo," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 29(1), pages 33-71, January.
    19. Kirby, Chris, 1998. "The Restrictions on Predictability Implied by Rational Asset Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(2), pages 343-382.
    20. Gebka, Bartosz, 2008. "Volume- and size-related lead-lag effects in stock returns and volatility: An empirical investigation of the Warsaw Stock Exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 134-155.
    21. Apergis, Nicholas & Artikis, Panagiotis & Sorros, John, 2011. "Asset pricing and foreign exchange risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 308-328, September.
    22. Werner F. M. De Bondt & Richard H. Thaler, 1994. "Financial Decision-Making in Markets and Firms: A Behavioral Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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