IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/iec/inveco/v29y2005i1p33-71.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelos de valoración de activos condicionales: Un panorama comparativo

Author

Listed:
  • Belén Nieto

    (Universidad de Alicante)

  • Rosa Rodriguez

    (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)

Abstract

Este trabajo revisa el papel de la información del momento económico cuando ésta se incorpora a los modelos de valoración de activos. Para ello, se revisan algunos modelos de valoración, así como las formas habituales mediante las que se implementa dinamismo en la estimación práctica de los mismos. Los resultados tanto para el mercado español como americano muestran que el comportamiento empírico de los modelos condicionales sólo mejora débilmente en ambos mercados y en el periodo elegido. Lo cual advierte de la importancia del periodo elegido. Si éste no recoge cambios en el ciclo económico, la contribución de las variables de estado a los modelos es escasa.

Suggested Citation

  • Belén Nieto & Rosa Rodriguez, 2005. "Modelos de valoración de activos condicionales: Un panorama comparativo," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 29(1), pages 33-71, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:iec:inveco:v:29:y:2005:i:1:p:33-71
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.fundacionsepi.es/investigacion/revistas/paperArchive/Ene2005/v29i1a2.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1325-1360, August.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1997. "Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 557-590, June.
    3. Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996. "The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
    4. Fernando Restoy & Philippe Weil, 2011. "Approximate Equilibrium Asset Prices," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28.
    5. Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1997. "Book-to-market, dividend yield, and expected market returns: A time-series analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 169-203, May.
    6. Lewellen, Jonathan, 1999. "The time-series relations among expected return, risk, and book-to-market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 5-43, October.
    7. Campbell, John Y, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 298-345, April.
    8. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    9. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
    10. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, June.
    11. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2004. "Predicting returns with financial ratios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, November.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/8644 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Campbell, John Y, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 487-512, June.
    14. Hodrick, Robert J. & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2001. "Evaluating the specification errors of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 327-376, November.
    15. Constantinides, George M, 1990. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 519-543, June.
    16. Keim, Donald B., 1983. "Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 13-32, June.
    17. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    18. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan, 2006. "The conditional CAPM does not explain asset-pricing anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 289-314, November.
    19. Ravi Bansal & Robert F. Dittmar & Christian T. Lundblad, 2005. "Consumption, Dividends, and the Cross Section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1639-1672, August.
    20. Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 2002. "Empirical Evaluation of Asset‐Pricing Models: A Comparison of the SDF and Beta Methods," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2337-2367, October.
    21. Sundaresan, Suresh M, 1989. "Intertemporally Dependent Preferences and the Volatility of Consumption and Wealth," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(1), pages 73-89.
    22. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
    23. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    24. Cochrane, John H, 1996. "A Cross-Sectional Test of an Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 572-621, June.
    25. Gabriel Hawawini & Donald B. Keim, "undated". "On the Predictability of Common Stock Returns: World-Wide Evidence (Revised: 22-94)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 23-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    26. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    27. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/8644 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Esteban González, María Victoria & Orbe Mandaluniz, Susan, 2006. "Nonparametric estimation betas in the Market Model," BILTOKI 1134-8984, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).
    2. F. Javier De Peña & Carlos Forner-Rodríguez & Germán López-Espinosa, 2008. "Fundamentals and the origin of Fama-French factors," Faculty Working Papers 04/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    3. Massimo Guidolin & Martin Lozano & Juan Arismendi Zambrano, "undated". "Multifactor Empirical Asset Pricing Under Higher-Order Moment Variations," Economics Department Working Paper Series n304-20.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    4. Carlos Forner & Sonia Sanabria & Joaquín Marhuenda, 2009. "Post-earnings announcement drift: Spanish evidence," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 207-241, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nieto, Belén & Rodríguez López, Rosa, 2004. "Modelos de valoración de activos condicionales: un panorama comparativo con datos españoles," DEE - Documentos de Trabajo. Economía de la Empresa. DB db040202, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    2. Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2013. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 799-906, Elsevier.
    3. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
    4. Dahlquist, Magnus & Sallstrom, Torbjorn, 2002. "An Evaluation of International Asset Pricing Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3145, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
    6. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    7. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
    8. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    9. Paulo Maio, 2007. "ICAPM with time-varying risk aversion," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 111, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    10. Kang, Jangkoo & Kim, Tong Suk & Lee, Changjun & Min, Byoung-Kyu, 2011. "Macroeconomic risk and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3158-3173.
    11. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    12. Roussanov, Nikolai, 2014. "Composition of wealth, conditioning information, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 352-380.
    13. Chrétien, Stéphane, 2012. "Bounds on the autocorrelation of admissible stochastic discount factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1943-1962.
    14. Hodrick, Robert J. & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2001. "Evaluating the specification errors of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 327-376, November.
    15. Cho, Sungjun, 2014. "What drives stochastic risk aversion?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 44-63.
    16. Paulo Maio, 2013. "Intertemporal CAPM with Conditioning Variables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(1), pages 122-141, April.
    17. Stefano Gubellini, 2014. "Conditioning information and cross-sectional anomalies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 529-569, October.
    18. Sydney Ludvigson, 2008. "The Research Agenda: Sydney Ludvigson on Empirical Evaluation of Economic Theories of Risk Premia," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), April.
    19. Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 2002. "Empirical Evaluation of Asset‐Pricing Models: A Comparison of the SDF and Beta Methods," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2337-2367, October.
    20. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2007. "Expectations, Shocks, and Asset Returns," NIPE Working Papers 29/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Valoración; predecibilidad; variables de estado;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iec:inveco:v:29:y:2005:i:1:p:33-71. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Isabel Sánchez-Seco (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.fundacionsepi.es/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.