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Forecasting stock market prices in a thin security market

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  • Virtanen, Ilkka
  • Yli-Olli, Paavo

Abstract

Stock market efficiency is a crucial concept when forecasting of future stock price behaviour is discussed. In the literature, a distinction is made between three potential levels of efficiency. Under a weak form of efficiency, information on historical price movements is of no value for predicting the future price development. Similarly, a semi-strong form of efficiency holds that no publicly available information can be successfully used in the prediction of prices. And finally, a strong form of efficiency means that the share prices fully reflect all relevant information including data not yet publicly available. Stock market efficiency has been extensively studied in different countries. On a thin security market, like in the Helsinki Stock Exchange, many anomalies and deviations from market efficiency have been obtained. This paper aims to contribute to that discussion. It is shown in the paper that both the monthly and quarterly stock market prices (the general stock market index) can be adequately forecasted using either univariate time-series analysis or multivariate econometric modelling. The univariate ARIMA-models seem to be slightly outperformed by the econometric models. It is further shown that the forecasting accuracy of the models can be improved when time-series and econometric forecasts are combined into a composite forecast. The empirical results obtained indicate an absence of efficiency on the Finnish security market.

Suggested Citation

  • Virtanen, Ilkka & Yli-Olli, Paavo, 1987. "Forecasting stock market prices in a thin security market," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-155.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:15:y:1987:i:2:p:145-155
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    Cited by:

    1. Mika Vaihekoski, 1998. "Short-term returns and the predictability of Finnish stock returns," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 19-36, Spring.
    2. Elkin Castaño V. & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 1998. "Métodos De Combinación De Pronósticos:Una Aplicación A La Inflación Colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003212, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    3. G. G. Booth & T. Martikainen, 1999. "Excess returns and international diversification: The Scandinavian view," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 181-185.
    4. G. Booth & Mustafa Chowdhury & Teppo Martikainen, 1994. "The effect of foreign ownership restrictions on stock price dynamics," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(4), pages 730-746, December.
    5. Elkin Castaño Vélez & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2000. "Metodos de combinacion de pronosticos: una aplicacion a la inflacion," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 52, pages 113-165, Enero Jun.

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