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Can US economic variables predict the Chinese stock market?

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  • Goh, Jeremy C.
  • Jiang, Fuwei
  • Tu, Jun
  • Wang, Yuchen

Abstract

In the last few decades, we observed a significant increase in global economic activities and these activities may have an impact on both China's economy and stock market. Given the potential impact, we empirically examine whether US economic variables are leading indicators of the Chinese stock market. Prior to China joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the end of 2001, we find no statistical relationship between US economic variables and the Chinese stock market returns. However, we find US economic variables have statistically significant predictive power for periods after China's admission into the WTO. In addition, we show that the combination of US and China economic variables is more superior in terms of forecasting ability than either single country economic variables. These findings are of economic importance from an investment perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Goh, Jeremy C. & Jiang, Fuwei & Tu, Jun & Wang, Yuchen, 2013. "Can US economic variables predict the Chinese stock market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 69-87.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:22:y:2013:i:c:p:69-87
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2012.10.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Jian & Jiang, Fuwei & Liu, Yangshu & Tu, Jun, 2017. "International volatility risk and Chinese stock return predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 183-203.
    2. Jordan, Steven J. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "Sticky prices or economically-linked economies: The case of forecasting the Chinese stock market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 95-109.
    3. Jordan, Steven J. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Forecasting market returns: bagging or combining?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 102-120.
    4. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2016. "Intraday return predictability, portfolio maximisation, and hedging," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 105-116.
    5. repec:spr:fininn:v:3:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-017-0053-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Chen, Jian & Jiang, Fuwei & Li, Hongyi & Xu, Weidong, 2016. "Chinese stock market volatility and the role of U.S. economic variables," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 70-83.
    7. Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Li, Nasha & Zou, Lin, 2016. "A New Approach to Modelling Sector Stock Returns in China," MPRA Paper 80554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ye, George L., 2014. "The interactions between China and US stock markets: New perspectives," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 331-342.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chinese stock market; Return predictability; International investment;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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