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Garch forecasting performance under different distribution assumptions

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  • Anders Wilhelmsson

    (Swedish School of Economics and Business Administration, Department of Finance and Statistics, Helsinki, Finland)

Abstract

This paper investigates the forecasting performance of the Garch (1, 1) model when estimated with NINE different error distributions on Standard and Poor's 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of volatility from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Anders Wilhelmsson, 2006. "Garch forecasting performance under different distribution assumptions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(8), pages 561-578.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:25:y:2006:i:8:p:561-578
    DOI: 10.1002/for.1009
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