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Price Volatility, Speculation and Excessive Speculation in Commodity Markets: sheep or shepherd behaviour?

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  • Algieri, Bernardina

Abstract

The present study aims to investigate the dynamics of primary commodity prices and the role of speculation over time. In particular the relationship between speculation and price volatility on the one side, and the linkage between excessive speculation and price volatility on the other side, is carefully examined with the scope to establish whether volatility drives speculation or speculation drives price volatility, or whether there are no linkages between the two variables. In order to identify the presence of any lead-lag relationships, two batteries of Granger causality tests are carried out for the period 1995-2012. The investigation complements a preliminary index analysis on speculation and excessive speculation in the commodity market. Unlike several academic researches that reject any causal relationship between the two variables, this study shows that excessive speculation drives price volatility, and that often bilateral relationships exist between price volatility and speculation. In addition, the lead-lag relationships are found not for the entire sample period 1995-2012, but when small sub-periods are taken into account. It turns out, in fact, that excessive speculation has driven price volatility for maize, rice, soybeans, and wheat in particular time frames, but the relationships are not always overlapping for all the considered commodities.

Suggested Citation

  • Algieri, Bernardina, 2012. "Price Volatility, Speculation and Excessive Speculation in Commodity Markets: sheep or shepherd behaviour?," Discussion Papers 124390, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ubzefd:124390
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.124390
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    4. D'Ecclesia, Rita L. & Magrini, Emiliano & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Triulzi, Umberto, 2014. "Understanding recent oil price dynamics: A novel empirical approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 11-17.
    5. Ederer, Stefan & Heumesser, Christine & Staritz, Cornelia, 2013. "The role of fundamentals and financialisation in recent commodity price developments: An empirical analysis for wheat, coffee, cotton, and oil," Working Papers 42, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).
    6. Will, Matthias Georg & Prehn, Sören & Pies, Ingo & Glauben, Thomas, 2012. "Schadet oder nützt die Finanzspekulation mit Agrarrohstoffen? Ein Literaturüberblick zum aktuellen Stand der empirischen Forschung," Discussion Papers 2012-26, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
    7. Raza, Syed Ali & Guesmi, Khaled & Belaid, Fateh & Shah, Nida, 2022. "Time-frequency causality and connectedness between oil price shocks and the world food prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Food Price Volatility in Developing Countries and its Determinants," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 52(4), pages 1-32, November.
    9. Bernhard Brümmer & Olaf Korn & Kristina Schlüßler & Tinoush Jamali Jaghdani, 2016. "Volatility in Oilseeds and Vegetable Oils Markets: Drivers and Spillovers," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 685-705, September.
    10. Matthias Kalkuhl & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka & Pierre Boulanger & Maximo Torero, 2013. "Conceptual framework on price volatility and its impact on food and nutrition security in the short term," FOODSECURE Working papers 15, LEI Wageningen UR.
    11. Rosa, Franco & Vasciaveo, Michela & Weaver, Robert D., 2014. "Agricultural and oil commodities: price transmission and market integration between US and Italy," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 3(2), pages 1-25, August.
    12. Adrián F. Rossignolo & Víctor A. Álvarez, 2015. "Has the Basel Committee Got it Right? Evidence from Commodity Positions in Turmoil," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38, Enero-Jun.
    13. Serdar Neslihanoglu & Stelios Bekiros & John McColl & Duncan Lee, 2021. "Multivariate time-varying parameter modelling for stock markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 947-972, August.
    14. Stefan Ederer & Christine Heumesser & Cornelia Staritz, 2016. "Financialization and commodity prices -- an empirical analysis for coffee, cotton, wheat and oil," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 462-487, July.
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    17. Haase, Marco & Seiler Zimmermann, Yvonne & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2016. "The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets – A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.

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