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The effectiveness of position limits: Evidence from the foreign exchange futures markets

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  • Chang, Ya-Kai
  • Chen, Yu-Lun
  • Chou, Robin K.
  • Gau, Yin-Feng

Abstract

This study considers the effects of the relative size of hedger and speculator open interests and the potential impact of implementing position limits on the price discovery process in both JPY–USD and EUR–USD futures markets. Hedging trading exerts a negative impact, regardless of its size, on price discovery in futures markets. Hedgers are less likely to be information motivated, so their trading uniformly delays the price discovery process. However, there is a positive and nonlinear impact of speculators’ trade size on price discovery, the contribution of which depends on the relative size of the speculative open interest. Contrary to conventional wisdom among regulators, speculative trading does not harm the market in terms of market efficiency; as long as the percentage of speculators’ open interest is below an endogenously determined threshold (approximately 20% for EUR–USD and 16.3% for JPY–USD), speculative trading even improves futures market efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Ya-Kai & Chen, Yu-Lun & Chou, Robin K. & Gau, Yin-Feng, 2013. "The effectiveness of position limits: Evidence from the foreign exchange futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4501-4509.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:11:p:4501-4509
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.02.033
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    Cited by:

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    3. Chiu-Lan Chang & Ming Fang, 2015. "An Analysis on Trading Behaviors of Currency Futures: Evidence from BRICS Countries," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(2), pages 134-134, May.
    4. Hung, Jui-Cheng & Liu, Hung-Chun & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2021. "Trading activity and price discovery in Bitcoin futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 107-120.
    5. Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 380-393.
    6. Fang, Ming & Chang, Chiu-Lan & Zhang, Qi, 2023. "Impacts of trading restrictions on price volatilities and speculative activities: Evidence from CSI 300 futures," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 184-204.
    7. Chen, Yu-Lun & Chang, Ya-Kai, 2015. "Investor structure and the informational efficiency of commodity futures prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 358-367.
    8. Apergis, Nicholas & Mustafa, Ghulam & Malik, Shafaq, 2023. "The role of the COVID-19 pandemic in US market volatility: Evidence from the VIX index," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 27-35.
    9. Chen, Yu-Lun & Tsai, Wei-Che, 2017. "Determinants of price discovery in the VIX futures market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 59-73.
    10. Piccotti, Louis R. & Schreiber, Ben Z., 2020. "Information shares in a two-tier FX market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 19-35.
    11. Edward Curran & Jack Hunt & Vito Mollica, 2020. "Trading protocols and price discovery: Implicit transaction costs in Indian single stock futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(11), pages 1793-1806, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hedging; Information shares; Price discovery; Position limits; Speculation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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