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Investigating Nonlinear Speculation in Cattle, Corn, and Hog Futures Markets using Logistic Smooth Transition Regression Models

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  • Röthig, Andreas
  • Chiarella, Carl

Abstract

This article explores nonlinearities in the response of speculators’ trading activity to price changes in live cattle, corn, and lean hog futures markets. Analyzing weekly data from March 4, 1997 to December 27, 2005, we reject linearity in all of these markets. Using smooth transition regression models, we find a similar structure of nonlinearities with regard to the number of different regimes, the choice of the transition variable, and the value at which the transition occurs.
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Suggested Citation

  • Röthig, Andreas & Chiarella, Carl, 2007. "Investigating Nonlinear Speculation in Cattle, Corn, and Hog Futures Markets using Logistic Smooth Transition Regression Models," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 29656, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    • Handle: RePEc:dar:wpaper:29656
    Note: for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/29656/
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    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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