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Trading activity and price discovery in Bitcoin futures markets

Author

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  • Hung, Jui-Cheng
  • Liu, Hung-Chun
  • Yang, J. Jimmy

Abstract

This study examines the impact of trading activities on price discovery in the Bitcoin futures markets. We find that trades of hedgers are positively correlated with the modified information shares in both CME and CBOE futures markets, suggesting that their trading promotes futures market efficiency. Retailers’ trading activity relates negatively to the price discovery of the CME Bitcoin futures and thus destabilizes the market. Speculators exert positive (negative) impact on the price discovery in the CME (CBOE) Bitcoin futures. Our finding that CME’s Bitcoin futures exhibit superior price discovery than CBOE’s provides plausible justification for CBOE’s decision in March 2019 to suspend further listings of Bitcoin futures contracts.

Suggested Citation

  • Hung, Jui-Cheng & Liu, Hung-Chun & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2021. "Trading activity and price discovery in Bitcoin futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 107-120.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:62:y:2021:i:c:p:107-120
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2021.03.001
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    9. Arun Narayanasamy & Humnath Panta & Rohit Agarwal, 2023. "Relations among Bitcoin Futures, Bitcoin Spot, Investor Attention, and Sentiment," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-24, November.
    10. Jakob Albers & Mihai Cucuringu & Sam Howison & Alexander Y. Shestopaloff, 2021. "Fragmentation, Price Formation, and Cross-Impact in Bitcoin Markets," Papers 2108.09750, arXiv.org.
    11. Zhang, Chuanhai & Ma, Huan & Arkorful, Gideon Bruce & Peng, Zhe, 2023. "The impacts of futures trading on volatility and volatility asymmetry of Bitcoin returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    12. Shimeng Shi, 2022. "Bitcoin futures risk premia," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(12), pages 2190-2217, December.
    13. Conlon, Thomas & Corbet, Shaen & McGee, Richard J., 2024. "The Bitcoin volume-volatility relationship: A high frequency analysis of futures and spot exchanges," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    14. Zhang, Chuanhai & Ma, Huan & Liao, Xiaosai, 2023. "Futures trading activity and the jump risk of spot market: Evidence from the bitcoin market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    15. Erdong Chen & Mengzhong Ma & Zixin Nie, 2024. "Exploring the Impact: How Decentralized Exchange Designs Shape Traders' Behavior on Perpetual Future Contracts," Papers 2402.03953, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    16. Liwei Jin & Xianghui Yuan & Shihao Wang & Peiran Li & Feng Lian, 2022. "Trades or quotes: Which drives price discovery? Evidence from Chinese index futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(12), pages 2235-2247, December.
    17. Weige Huang & Xiang Gao, 2023. "Forecasting Bitcoin Futures: A Lasso-BMA Two-Step Predictor Selection for Investment and Hedging Strategies," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, January.
    18. Shimeng Shi & Jia Zhai & Yingying Wu, 2024. "Informational inefficiency on bitcoin futures," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 642-667, April.
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    20. Yu‐Lun Chen & J. Jimmy Yang, 2024. "Time‐varying price discovery in regular and microbitcoin futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 103-121, January.
    21. Sobti, Neharika & Sehgal, Sanjay & Ilango, Balakrishnan, 2021. "How do macroeconomic news surprises affect round-the-clock price discovery of gold?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin futures; Trading activity; Price discovery; COT reports; Modified information share;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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