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On the Intraday Relation Between the VIX and its Futures

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  • Bart Frijns
  • Alireza Tourani‐Rad
  • Robert I. Webb

Abstract

We study the intraday dynamics of the VIX and VIX futures for the period January 2, 2008 to December 31, 2014. Considering first the results of a Vector Autoregression (VAR) using daily data, we observe that there is some evidence of causality from VIX futures to the VIX. Estimating a VAR using our ultra‐high frequency data, we find strong evidence for bi‐directional Granger causality between the VIX and the VIX futures. Overall, this effect appears to be stronger from VIX futures to the VIX than the other way around. Impulse response functions and variance decompositions confirm the dominance of the VIX futures. Lastly, we show that the causality from the VIX futures to the VIX has been increasing over our sample period, whereas the reverse causality has been decreasing. We observe that the VIX futures have become increasingly more important in the pricing of volatility. We further document that the VIX futures dominate the VIX more on days with negative returns, and on days with high values of the VIX, suggesting that those are the days when investors use VIX futures to hedge their positions rather than trading in the S&P500 index options. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 36:870–886, 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Bart Frijns & Alireza Tourani‐Rad & Robert I. Webb, 2016. "On the Intraday Relation Between the VIX and its Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(9), pages 870-886, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:36:y:2016:i:9:p:870-886
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Ying-Hui, 2020. "Time-dependent lead-lag relationships between the VIX and VIX futures markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Jędrzej Białkowski & Huong Dieu Dang & Xiaopeng Wei, 2017. "Does the Tail Wag the Dog? Evidence from Fund Flow to VIX ETFs and ETNs," Working Papers in Economics 17/17, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    3. Anders Merrild Posselt, 2022. "Dynamics in the VIX complex," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(9), pages 1665-1687, September.
    4. Adrian Fernandez‐Perez & Bart Frijns & Ilnara Gafiatullina & Alireza Tourani‐Rad, 2018. "Determinants of intraday price discovery in VIX exchange traded notes," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 535-548, May.
    5. Sebastian A. Gehricke & Jin E. Zhang, 2020. "Modeling VXX under jump diffusion with stochastic long‐term mean," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1508-1534, October.
    6. Hsiu-Chuan Lee & Donald Lien & Her-Jiun Sheu, 2023. "Hedging performance of volatility index futures: a partial cointegration approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 265-294, July.
    7. Gaoxiu Qiao & Gongyue Jiang, 2023. "VIX futures pricing based on high‐frequency VIX: A hybrid approach combining SVR with parametric models," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(9), pages 1238-1260, September.
    8. Fassas, Athanasios P. & Papadamou, Stephanos & Koulis, Alexandros, 2020. "Price discovery in bitcoin futures," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2020. "Economic indicators and stock market volatility in an emerging economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(2).
    10. Hung, Jui-Cheng & Liu, Hung-Chun & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2021. "Trading activity and price discovery in Bitcoin futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 107-120.
    11. Yun‐Huan Lee & Tzu‐Hsiang Liao & Hsiu‐Chuan Lee, 2022. "Overnight returns of industry exchange‐traded funds, investor sentiment, and futures market returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(6), pages 1114-1134, June.
    12. Dian‐Xuan Kao & Wei‐Che Tsai & Yaw‐Huei Wang & Kuang‐Chieh Yen, 2018. "An analysis on the intraday trading activity of VIX derivatives," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 158-174, February.
    13. Taylor, Nick, 2019. "Forecasting returns in the VIX futures market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1193-1210.
    14. Daniel Guterding, 2020. "Inventory effects on the price dynamics of VSTOXX futures quantified via machine learning," Papers 2002.08207, arXiv.org.
    15. Scott Mixon & Esen Onur, 2019. "Derivatives pricing when supply and demand matter: Evidence from the term structure of VIX futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(9), pages 1035-1055, September.
    16. Milan Bašta & Peter Molnár, 2019. "Long‐term dynamics of the VIX index and its tradable counterpart VXX," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 322-341, March.
    17. Apergis, Nicholas & Mustafa, Ghulam & Malik, Shafaq, 2023. "The role of the COVID-19 pandemic in US market volatility: Evidence from the VIX index," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 27-35.
    18. Chen, Yu-Lun & Tsai, Wei-Che, 2017. "Determinants of price discovery in the VIX futures market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 59-73.
    19. Gongyue Jiang & Gaoxiu Qiao & Feng Ma & Lu Wang, 2022. "Directly pricing VIX futures with observable dynamic jumps based on high‐frequency VIX," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 1518-1548, August.
    20. Gehricke, Sebastian A. & Zhang, Jin E., 2021. "Tracking performance of VIX futures ETPs," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 103-117.
    21. Cedric Mbanga & Ali F. Darrat & Jung Chul Park, 2019. "Investor sentiment and aggregate stock returns: the role of investor attention," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 397-428, August.
    22. Onofrio Panzarino & Francesco Potente & Alfonso Puorro, 2016. "BTP futures and cash relationships: a high frequency data analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1083, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    23. James S. Doran, 2020. "Volatility as an asset class: Holding VIX in a portfolio," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 841-859, June.
    24. Yan-Hong Yang & Ying-Hui Shao, 2019. "Time-dependent lead-lag relationships between the VIX and VIX futures markets," Papers 1910.13729, arXiv.org.
    25. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Michael O’Neill & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2018. "Does Systematic Sampling Preserve Granger Causality with an Application to High Frequency Financial Data?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-24, June.

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