IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v352y2025i3d10.1007_s10479-022-04971-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The connectedness and risk spillovers between bitcoin spot and futures markets: evidence from intraday data

Author

Listed:
  • Emrah Ismail Cevik

    (Tekirdağ Namık Kemal Üniversitesi)

  • Samet Gunay

    (American University of the Middle East)

  • Mehmet Fatih Bugan

    (Gaziantep University)

  • Sel Dibooglu

    (Wilmington University)

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic relation between Bitcoin spot and futures markets during the Covid-19 pandemic. Using hourly data from 2020 combined with quantile impulse response analysis and predictability in the distribution test, we attempt to ascertain whether spot or futures markets lead in the price discovery process under a variety of market conditions. Granger predictability based on the left tail, the right tail, and the center of the distribution show bidirectional predictability between spot and futures markets suggesting significant feedback effects following normal and extreme gains/losses where neither market dominates in price discovery. Using a CAViaR model and the associated impulse response functions with estimates for dynamic tail dependence, we document spillovers between quantiles of spot and futures returns. Estimates of impulse response functions at various risk levels show the futures market has an edge in influencing the spot market and figures more prominently in the price discovery process.

Suggested Citation

  • Emrah Ismail Cevik & Samet Gunay & Mehmet Fatih Bugan & Sel Dibooglu, 2025. "The connectedness and risk spillovers between bitcoin spot and futures markets: evidence from intraday data," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 352(3), pages 389-413, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:352:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s10479-022-04971-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-022-04971-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-022-04971-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-022-04971-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:352:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s10479-022-04971-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.