IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v44y2024i1p103-121.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time‐varying price discovery in regular and microbitcoin futures

Author

Listed:
  • Yu‐Lun Chen
  • J. Jimmy Yang

Abstract

We investigate the dynamic price discovery in the regular bitcoin (BTC) and microbitcoin (MBT) futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The only difference between the two bitcoin futures is the contract size, with MBT representing 1/50th of BTC. In contrast to recent findings in the literature, we find that BTC dominates MBT futures in price discovery, which can be attributed to the relative liquidity and investor structure in the BTC and MBT futures. In addition, crypto hacking activities can affect price discovery in bitcoin futures as we find higher hack stolen funds reduce (enhance) the price discovery in BTC (MBT) futures. These findings provide practical implications for bitcoin investors and regulators.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu‐Lun Chen & J. Jimmy Yang, 2024. "Time‐varying price discovery in regular and microbitcoin futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 103-121, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:44:y:2024:i:1:p:103-121
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22466
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22466
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/fut.22466?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erik Theissen, 2012. "Price discovery in spot and futures markets: a reconsideration," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(10), pages 969-987, November.
    2. Pati, Pratap Chandra, 2022. "Informativeness of CME Micro Bitcoin Futures in Pricing of Bitcoin: Intraday Evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    3. Chen, Yu-Lun & Gau, Yin-Feng, 2010. "News announcements and price discovery in foreign exchange spot and futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1628-1636, July.
    4. de Jong, Frank, 2002. "Measures of contributions to price discovery: a comparison," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 323-327, July.
    5. Love, Ryan & Payne, Richard, 2008. "Macroeconomic News, Order Flows, and Exchange Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 467-488, June.
    6. Kapar, Burcu & Olmo, Jose, 2019. "An analysis of price discovery between Bitcoin futures and spot markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 62-64.
    7. Chen, Yu-Lun & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2021. "Trader positions in VIX futures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-17.
    8. G. Geoffrey Booth & Raymond W. So & Yiuman Tse, 1999. "Price discovery in the German equity index derivatives markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 619-643, September.
    9. Jinghong Wu & Ke Xu & Xinwei Zheng & Jian Chen, 2021. "Fractional cointegration in bitcoin spot and futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(9), pages 1478-1494, September.
    10. Dimpfl, Thomas & Peter, Franziska J., 2021. "Nothing but noise? Price discovery across cryptocurrency exchanges," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Saggu, Aman, 2022. "The Intraday Bitcoin Response to Tether Minting and Burning Events: Asymmetry, Investor Sentiment, and “Whale Alerts” on Twitter," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    12. Makarov, Igor & Schoar, Antoinette, 2020. "Trading and arbitrage in cryptocurrency markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100409, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Frijns, Bart & Gilbert, Aaron & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2015. "The determinants of price discovery: Evidence from US-Canadian cross-listed shares," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 457-468.
    14. Mizrach, Bruce & Neely, Christopher J., 2008. "Information shares in the US Treasury market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1221-1233, July.
    15. Lin, Chu-Bin & Chou, Robin K. & Wang, George H.K., 2018. "Investor sentiment and price discovery: Evidence from the pricing dynamics between the futures and spot markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 17-31.
    16. Donald Lien & Keshab Shrestha, 2009. "A new information share measure," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 377-395, April.
    17. Hasbrouck, Joel, 2004. "Liquidity in the Futures Pits: Inferring Market Dynamics from Incomplete Data," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 305-326, June.
    18. Dirk G. Baur & Thomas Dimpfl, 2019. "Price discovery in bitcoin spot or futures?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 803-817, July.
    19. Makarov, Igor & Schoar, Antoinette, 2020. "Trading and arbitrage in cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 293-319.
    20. Mokni, Khaled & Bouteska, Ahmed & Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi, 2022. "Investor sentiment and Bitcoin relationship: A quantile-based analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    21. deB. Harris, Frederick H. & McInish, Thomas H. & Shoesmith, Gary L. & Wood, Robert A., 1995. "Cointegration, Error Correction, and Price Discovery on Informationally Linked Security Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(4), pages 563-579, December.
    22. Sugato Chakravarty & Huseyin Gulen & Stewart Mayhew, 2004. "Informed Trading in Stock and Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1235-1258, June.
    23. Hung, Jui-Cheng & Liu, Hung-Chun & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2021. "Trading activity and price discovery in Bitcoin futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 107-120.
    24. Joel Hasbrouck, 2003. "Intraday Price Formation in U.S. Equity Index Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2375-2400, December.
    25. Yu‐Lun Chen & Yen‐Hsien Lee & Robin K. Chou & Ya‐Kai Chang, 2021. "Arbitrage trading and price discovery of the regular and mini Taiwan stock index futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 926-948, June.
    26. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. "One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-1199, September.
    27. Chen, Yu-Lun & Chang, Yung Ting & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2023. "Cryptocurrency hacking incidents and the price dynamics of Bitcoin spot and futures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    28. Feng, Wenjun & Wang, Yiming & Zhang, Zhengjun, 2018. "Informed trading in the Bitcoin market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 63-70.
    29. Baillie, Richard T. & Geoffrey Booth, G. & Tse, Yiuman & Zabotina, Tatyana, 2002. "Price discovery and common factor models," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-321, July.
    30. Oliver Entrop & Bart Frijns & Marco Seruset, 2020. "The determinants of price discovery on bitcoin markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 816-837, May.
    31. Brandvold, Morten & Molnár, Peter & Vagstad, Kristian & Andreas Valstad, Ole Christian, 2015. "Price discovery on Bitcoin exchanges," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 18-35.
    32. Lien, Donald, 2022. "Comparisons of Alternative Information Share Measures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oliver Entrop & Bart Frijns & Marco Seruset, 2020. "The determinants of price discovery on bitcoin markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 816-837, May.
    2. Sebastiano Michele Zema, 2020. "Directed Acyclic Graph based Information Shares for Price Discovery," LEM Papers Series 2020/28, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Zema, Sebastiano Michele, 2022. "Directed acyclic graph based information shares for price discovery," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Chen, Yu-Lun & Chang, Yung Ting & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2023. "Cryptocurrency hacking incidents and the price dynamics of Bitcoin spot and futures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    5. Fassas, Athanasios P. & Papadamou, Stephanos & Koulis, Alexandros, 2020. "Price discovery in bitcoin futures," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Hung, Jui-Cheng & Liu, Hung-Chun & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2021. "Trading activity and price discovery in Bitcoin futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 107-120.
    7. Christoph Schmidhammer & Sebastian Lobe & Klaus Röder, 2016. "The day the index rose 11 %: a clinical study on price discovery reversal," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 79-106, January.
    8. Huang, Guan-Ying & Gau, Yin-Feng & Wu, Zhen-Xing, 2022. "Price discovery in fiat currency and cryptocurrency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    9. Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang & Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2020. "The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on asset-price discovery: Testing the case of Chinese informational asymmetry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Christoph Schmidhammer & Sebastian Lobe & Klaus Röder, 2016. "The day the index rose 11 %: a clinical study on price discovery reversal," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 79-106, January.
    11. Yu-Lun Chen, 2020. "News announcements and price discovery in the RMB–USD market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1487-1508, May.
    12. Wu, Zhen-Xing & Gau, Yin-Feng & Chen, Yu-Lun, 2023. "Price discovery and triangular arbitrage in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    13. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2017. "Time-Varying Price Discovery and Autoregressive Loading Factors: Evidence from S&P 500 Cash and E-Mini Futures Markets," MPRA Paper 81999, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Yu-Lun Chen & Yin-Feng Gau & Wen-Ju Liao, 2016. "Trading activities and price discovery in foreign currency futures markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 793-818, May.
    15. Gemayel, Roland & Franus, Tatiana & Bowden, James, 2023. "Price discovery between Bitcoin spot markets and exchange traded products," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    16. Xu, Feng & Wan, Difang, 2015. "The impacts of institutional and individual investors on the price discovery in stock index futures market: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 221-231.
    17. Hu, Yang & Hou, Yang Greg & Oxley, Les, 2020. "What role do futures markets play in Bitcoin pricing? Causality, cointegration and price discovery from a time-varying perspective?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    18. Sebastiano Michele Zema, 2023. "A non-Normal framework for price discovery: The independent component based information shares measure," LEM Papers Series 2023/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    19. Chen, Wei-Peng & Chung, Huimin & Lien, Donald, 2016. "Price discovery in the S&P 500 index derivatives markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 438-452.
    20. Donald Lien & Ziling Wang & Xiaojian Yu, 2021. "Quantile information share under Markov regime‐switching," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 493-513, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:44:y:2024:i:1:p:103-121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.