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Do financial investors affect commodity prices? The case of Hard Red Winter Wheat

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  • Girardi, Daniele

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to assess empirically whether speculative financial investments have affected wheat price dynamics in recent years. To address this issue we will (1) analyze recent agricultural price dynamics and their drivers (2) outline the process of ‘financialization’ of agricultural commodity markets, identifying the macroeconomic, monetary and legislative factors which favored it and (3) present an econometric analysis using Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat as a case study. Since 2007 HRW wheat price fluctuations have been positively related to US stock market returns and oil price movements. These correlations appear to be determined by commodity index traders, a category of financial investors, since both these relationships proved to be spurious, with the most tracked commodity index as the confounding variable.

Suggested Citation

  • Girardi, Daniele, 2011. "Do financial investors affect commodity prices? The case of Hard Red Winter Wheat," MPRA Paper 35670, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35670
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    JEL classification:

    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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