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Commodity futures markets: are they an effective price risk management tool for the European wheat supply chain ?


  • Revoredo-Giha, C.
  • Zuppiroli, M.


The instability of commodity prices and the hypothesis that speculative behaviour was one of its causes has brought renewed interest in futures markets. In this paper, we analyse the European wheat futures markets (feed and milling) and the CBOT’s wheat contract as a comparison, to study their efficiency, hedging effectiveness and whether they were affected during the period of high instability after 2007. Implicitly this is a test of whether the increasing presence of speculation in futures markets have made them divorced from the physical markets, and therefore, not useful for commercial entities aiming to exchange price risk for basis risk.

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  • Revoredo-Giha, C. & Zuppiroli, M., 2013. "Commodity futures markets: are they an effective price risk management tool for the European wheat supply chain ?," 2013 Second Congress, June 6-7, 2013, Parma, Italy 149773, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aiea13:149773

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Paul H. Cootner, 1960. "Returns to Speculators: Telser versus Keynes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68, pages 396-396.
    2. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    3. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R. & Merrin, Robert P., 2009. "Devil or Angel? The Role of Speculation in the Recent Commodity Price Boom (and Bust)," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(02), pages 377-391, August.
    4. Sergio H. Lence, 2009. "Do Futures Benefit Farmers?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 154-167.
    5. STEVEN C. BLANK & COLIN A. CARTER & JEFFREY McDONALD, 1997. "Is The Market Failing Agricultural Producers Who Wish To Manage Risks?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 15(3), pages 103-112, July.
    6. Christopher Gilbert & Wyn Morgan, 2010. "Has food price volatility risen?," Department of Economics Working Papers 1002, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    7. Carter, Colin A., 1984. "An Evaluation Of Pricing Performance And Hedging Effectiveness Of The Barley Futures Market," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 9(01), July.
    8. Lester G. Telser, 1958. "Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 233-233.
    9. Roger W. Gray, 1961. "The Search for a Risk Premium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69, pages 250-250.
    10. Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-297, May.
    11. Castelino, Mark G, 1989. "Basis Volatility: Implications for Hedging," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 157-172, Summer.
    12. Stein, Jerome L, 1981. "Speculative Price: Economic Welfare and the Idiot of Chance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(2), pages 223-232, May.
    13. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-170, March.
    14. Gray, Roger W., 1967. "Price Effects of a Lack of Speculation," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute.
    15. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2004. "Comparing Hedging Effectiveness: An Application of the Encompassing Principle," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(01), April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Zuppiroli & Cesar Revoredo-Giha, 2016. "Hedging effectiveness of European wheat futures markets: an application of multivariate GARCH models," International Journal of Applied Management Science, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(2), pages 132-148.
    2. Gianluca Stefani & Marco Tiberti, 2013. "Textbook Estimators of Multiperiod Optimal Hedging Ratios: Methodological Aspects and Application to the European Wheat Market," Working Papers - Economics wp2013_29.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    3. Revoredo-Giha, Cesar & Zuppiroli, Marco, 2014. "Hedging effectiveness of European wheat futures markets," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182948, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item


    Futures prices; commodity prices; volatility; wheat; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; International Relations/Trade; G1; G130;

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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