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Hedging effectiveness of European wheat futures markets: An application of multivariate GARCH models

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  • Revoredo-Giha, Cesar
  • Zuppiroli, Marco

Abstract

The instability of commodity prices and the hypothesis that speculative behaviour was one of its causes has brought renewed interest in futures markets. In this paper, the hedging effectiveness of European and US wheat futures markets were studied to test whether they were affected by the high price instability after 2007. In particular, the focus of the paper is to test of whether the increasing presence of financialization of commodity trading in futures markets mentioned in the literature have made them divorced from the physical markets. A multivariate GARCH model was applied to compute optimal hedging ratios. Important evidence was found of an improvement, after 2007, in the effectiveness of hedging with the European futures.

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  • Revoredo-Giha, Cesar & Zuppiroli, Marco, 2015. "Hedging effectiveness of European wheat futures markets: An application of multivariate GARCH models," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212486, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae15:212486
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.212486
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Moschini, GianCarlo & Myers, Robert J., 2002. "Testing for constant hedge ratios in commodity markets: a multivariate GARCH approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 589-603, December.
    2. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    3. Robert J. Myers & Stanley R. Thompson, 1989. "Generalized Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(4), pages 858-868.
    4. Donald Lien & Y. K. Tse, 2002. "Some Recent Developments in Futures Hedging," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 357-396, July.
    5. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R. & Merrin, Robert P., 2009. "Devil or Angel? The Role of Speculation in the Recent Commodity Price Boom (and Bust)," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(2), August.
    6. repec:bla:jecsur:v:16:y:2002:i:3:p:357-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Revoredo-Giha, Cesar & Zuppiroli, Marco, 2013. "Commodity futures markets: are they an effective price risk management tool for the European wheat supply chain?," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 2(3), pages 1-19, December.
    8. STEVEN C. BLANK & COLIN A. CARTER & JEFFREY McDONALD, 1997. "Is The Market Failing Agricultural Producers Who Wish To Manage Risks?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 15(3), pages 103-112, July.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    10. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-170, March.
    11. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2004. "Comparing Hedging Effectiveness: An Application of the Encompassing Principle," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 1-14, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sigl, Lukas & Hirschauer, Norbert, 2024. "The hedging efficiency of wheat futures in various types of farms in Germany," SocArXiv pvq9t, Center for Open Science.
    2. Čermák, M. & Malec, K. & Maitah, M., 2017. "Price Volatility Modelling – Wheat: GARCH Model Application," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 9(4).
    3. Carlotta Penone & Elisa Giampietri & Samuele Trestini, 2021. "Hedging Effectiveness of Commodity Futures Contracts to Minimize Price Risk: Empirical Evidence from the Italian Field Crop Sector," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Algirdas Justinas Staugaitis & Bernardas Vaznonis, 2022. "Short-Term Speculation Effects on Agricultural Commodity Returns and Volatility in the European Market Prior to and during the Pandemic," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-26, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing;

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness

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