Testing for Constant Hedge Ratios in Commodity Markets: A Multivariate Garch Approach
The authors develop a new multivariate GARCH parameterization that is suitable for testing the hypothesis that the optimal futures hedge ratio is constant over time, given that the joint distribution of cash and futures prices is characterized by autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. The advantage of the new parameterization is that it allows for a flexible form of time-varying volatility, even under the null of a constant hedge ratio. The model is estimated using weekly corn prices. Statistical tests reject the null hypothesis of a constant hedge ratio and also reject the null that time variation in optimal hedge ratios can be explained solely by deterministic seasonality and time-to-maturity effects.
|Date of creation:||01 Dec 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Journal of Empirical Finance, December 2002, vol. 9 no. 5, pp. 589-603|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Moschini, Giancarlo & Hennessy, David A., 2001.
"Uncertainty, risk aversion, and risk management for agricultural producers,"
Handbook of Agricultural Economics,
in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 88-153
- Moschini, GianCarlo & Hennessy, David A., 2001. "Uncertainty, Risk Aversion, and Risk Management for Agricultural Producers," Staff General Research Papers 5323, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Lapan, Harvey E. & Moschini, GianCarlo & Hanson, Steven D., 1991. "Production Hedging and Speculative Decisions with Options and Future Markets," Staff General Research Papers 10810, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Cecchetti, Stephen G & Cumby, Robert E & Figlewski, Stephen, 1988.
"Estimation of the Optimal Futures Hedge,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 623-30, November.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988.
"Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
866R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1989.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:1:p:122-50 is not listed on IDEAS
- Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1983. "The Time Pattern of Hedging and the Volatility of Futures Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 249-66, April.
- Lence, Sergio H., 1995.
"On the optimal hedge under unbiased futures prices,"
Elsevier, vol. 47(3-4), pages 385-388, March.
- Lence, Sergio H., 1995. "On the Optimal Hedge Under Unbiased Futures Prices," Staff General Research Papers 5115, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
- Karp, Larry S, 1988.
"Dynamic Hedging with Uncertain Production,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(4), pages 621-37, November.
- Karp, Larry, 1985. "Dynamic Hedging with Uncertain Production," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt20k8j5kh, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Moschini, GianCarlo & Lapan, Harvey E., 1995. "Hedging Role of Options and Futures Under Joint Price, Basis and Production Risk, The," Staff General Research Papers 5137, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Lumsdaine, Robin L, 1996. "Consistency and Asymptotic Normality of the Quasi-maximum Likelihood Estimator in IGARCH(1,1) and Covariance Stationary GARCH(1,1) Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 575-96, May.
- Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
- Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December.
- Moschini, Giancarlo & Lapan, Harvey, 1995. "The Hedging Role of Options and Futures under Joint Price, Basis, and Production Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 1025-49, November.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Benninga, Simon & Eldor, Rafael & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1983. "Optimal hedging in the futures market under price uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 141-145.
- Baillie, Richard T & Myers, Robert J, 1991. "Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 109-24, April-Jun.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:isu:genres:1945. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Curtis Balmer)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.