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Absicherung von Strompreisrisiken mit Futures: Theorie und Empirie

  • Rodt, Marc
  • Schäfer, Klaus
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    The regulatory changes in the german electric power market result in rising electricity price volatility. As a consequence electricity price risk management is essential for an electricity trader. The paper therefore analyzes the needed volume of futures hedging for an electricity trader, that ist tries to derive the optimal hedge ratio. In the first step the theoretical conditions for a preference-free optimal hedge ratio are discussed. In the second step these conditions are analyzed empirically with data for the german electricity exchange EEX and the scandinavian electricity exchange Nord Pool.

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    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/27094/1/511431996.PDF
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    Paper provided by TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Freiberg Working Papers with number 2005,18.

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    Date of creation: 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:tufwps:200518
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    1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
    2. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    3. Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2002. "Combining time-varying and dynamic multi-period optimal hedging models," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 29(4), pages 471-500, December.
    4. Lence, Sergio H., 1995. "On the Optimal Hedge Under Unbiased Futures Prices," Staff General Research Papers 5115, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Benninga, Simon & Eldor, Rafael & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1983. "Optimal hedging in the futures market under price uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 141-145.
    6. Ross, Stephen A., 1978. "Mutual fund separation in financial theory--The separating distributions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 254-286, April.
    7. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1987. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums,and the Theory of Storage," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 55-73, January.
    8. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-70, March.
    9. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E & Schmitz, Andrew, 1980. "Futures Markets and the Theory of the Firm under Price Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 317-28, March.
    10. Meyer, Jack & Rasche, Robert H, 1992. "Sufficient Conditions for Expected Utility to Imply Mean-Standard Deviation Rankings: Empirical Evidence Concerning the Location and Scale Condition," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(410), pages 91-106, January.
    11. Rao, Vadhindran K., 2000. "Preference-free optimal hedging using futures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 223-228, February.
    12. Holthausen, Duncan M, 1979. "Hedging and the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 989-95, December.
    13. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    14. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December.
    15. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    16. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    17. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    18. Figlewski, Stephen, 1984. " Hedging Performance and Basis Risk in Stock Index Futures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 657-69, July.
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