Combining Time-Varying And Dynamic Multi-Period Optimal Hedging Models
This paper presents an effective way of combining two popular, yet distinct approaches used in the hedging literature dynamic programming (DP) and time-series (GARCH) econometrics. Theoretically consistent yet realistic and tractable models are developed for traders interested in hedging a portfolio. Results from a bootstrapping experiment used to construct confidence bands around the competing portfolios suggest that while DP-GARCH outperforms the GARCH approach they are statistically equivalent to the OLS approach when the markets are stable. Significant gains may be achieved by a trader, however, by adopting the DPGARCH model over the OLS approach when markets exhibit excessive volatility.
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Phone: 301-405-1290|
Web page: http://www.arec.umd.edu/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Myers, Robert J. & Thompson, Stanley R., 1988. "Generalized Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation," Staff Papers 200967, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
- Rausser, Gordon C & Carter, Colin, 1983.
"Futures Market Efficiency in the Soybean Complex,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 469-78, August.
- Rausser, Gordon C. & Carter, Colin, 1981. "Futures market efficiency in the soybean complex," CUDARE Working Paper Series 139R, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
- Rausser, Gordon C. & Carter, Colin A., 1982. "Futures market efficiency in the soybean complex," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt7d48x9qc, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
- Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
- Ronald W. Anderson & Jean-Pierre Danthine, 1983. "The Time Pattern of Hedging and the Volatility of Futures Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 249-266.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Robert E. Cumby & Stephen Figlewski, 1986.
"Estimation of the optimal futures hedge,"
Research Working Paper
86-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Lence, Sergio H. & Kimle, Kevin & Hayenga, Marvin L., 1993.
"A Dynamic Minimum Variance Hedge,"
Staff General Research Papers
10833, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Pennings, Joost M. E. & M. Leuthold, Raymond, 2001. "Introducing new futures contracts: reinforcement versus cannibalism," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 659-675, October.
- Karp, Larry S, 1988.
"Dynamic Hedging with Uncertain Production,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(4), pages 621-37, November.
- Karp, Larry, 1985. "Dynamic Hedging with Uncertain Production," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt20k8j5kh, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
- Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-70, March.
- Tae H. Park & Lorne N. Switzer, 1995. "Bivariate GARCH estimation of the optimal hedge ratios for stock index futures: A note," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 61-67, 02.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Baillie, Richard T & Myers, Robert J, 1991. "Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 109-24, April-Jun.
- Gagnon, Louis & Lypny, Gregory J. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1998. "Hedging foreign currency portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 197-220, September.
- Peter S. Sephton, 1993. "Optimal Hedge Ratios at the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(1), pages 175-93, February.
- Nance, Deana R & Smith, Clifford W, Jr & Smithson, Charles W, 1993. " On the Determinants of Corporate Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 267-84, March.
- Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2000. "Hedging Multiple Price Uncertainty in International Grain Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 881-896.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:umdrwp:28593. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.