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Empirical Analysis Of Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Viewpoint

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  • Tomek, William G.
  • Myers, Robert J.

Abstract

Numerous models of price-demand-supply behavior in agricultural markets have been proposed and estimated. The literature contains valuable contributions, but the cumulative effect is somewhat disappointing. This paper appraises the status of the price analysis literature and makes suggestions for improving the quality of empirical results. Both structural and time-series models are appraised.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomek, William G. & Myers, Robert J., 1993. "Empirical Analysis Of Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Viewpoint," Working Papers 6847, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:cudawp:6847
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.6847
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    Cited by:

    1. Du, Wen, 2004. "International Market Integration Under Wto: Evidence In The Price Behaviors Of Chinese And Us Wheat Futures," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20115, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Traub, Lulama Ndibongo & Jayne, T.S., 2008. "The effects of price deregulation on maize marketing margins in South Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 224-236, June.
    3. Katsushi S. Imai & Nidhi Kaicker & Raghav Gaiha, 2020. "The Covid-19 Impact on Agricultural Market Arrivals and Prices in India: A Panel VAR Approach," Discussion Paper Series DP2020-30, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Dec 2020.
    4. Diebold, Francis X. & Lamb, Russell L., 1997. "Why are estimates of agricultural supply response so variable?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 357-373.
    5. Tomek, William G. & Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa, 2000. "Risk Management In Agricultural Markets: A Survey," 2000 Producer Marketing and Risk Management Conference, January 13-14, Orlando, FL 19580, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Andrew McKenzie & Matthew Holt, 2002. "Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1519-1532.
    7. Rosa, Franco & Vasciaveo, Michela & Weaver, Robert D., 2014. "Agricultural and oil commodities: price transmission and market integration between US and Italy," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 3(2), pages 1-25, August.
    8. Du, Wen & Wang, H. Holly, 2004. "Price behavior in China's wheat futures market," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 215-229.
    9. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2019. "Do international primary commodity prices exhibit asymmetric adjustment?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 40-50.
    10. Mr. Shaun K. Roache, 2012. "China's Impacton World Commodity Markets," IMF Working Papers 2012/115, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Park, Hwanil & Fortenbery, T. Randall, 2007. "The Effect of Ethanol Production on the U.S. National Corn Price," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37565, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    12. Vasciaveo, M. & Rosa, F. & Weaver, R., 2013. "Agricultural market integration: price transmission and policy intervention," 2013 Second Congress, June 6-7, 2013, Parma, Italy 149887, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    13. Yawen Fan & Xiaohui Liu & Yang Cao & Shaochu Liu, 2024. "Jackknife empirical likelihood based diagnostic checking for Ar(p) models," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 39(5), pages 2479-2509, July.
    14. Hikaru Hanawa Peterson & William G. Tomek, 2005. "How much of commodity price behavior can a rational expectations storage model explain?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(3), pages 289-303, November.
    15. Myers, Robert J., 1994. "Time Series Econometrics and Commodity Price Analysis: A Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(02), pages 1-15, August.
    16. Park, Timothy A. & Gubanova, Tatiana & Lohr, Luanne & Escalante, Cesar L., 2005. "Forecasting Organic Food Prices: Testing and Evaluating Conditional Predictive Ability," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19412, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. Tomek, William G., 2000. "Commodity Prices Revisited," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 29(2), pages 1-13, October.
    18. Alain McLaren, 2015. "Asymmetry in Price Transmission in Agricultural Markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 415-433, May.
    19. Gubanova, Tatiana & Lohr, Luanne & Park, Timothy A., 2005. "Forecasting Organic Food Prices: Emerging Methods for Testing and Evaluating Conditional Predictive Ability," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19045, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    20. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-412 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Christopher Barrett, 1997. "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 225-236.
    22. Eduardo López E. & Francisco Meneses P. & Felipe Córdova F. & M. Carolina Grünwald N., 2008. "Comportamiento del Precio Internacional de Granos Seleccionados y su Impacto en la Inflación," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(1), pages 119-129, April.
    23. Modhurima Dey Amin & Syed Badruddoza & Oscar Sarasty, 2024. "Comparing the great recession and COVID‐19 using Long Short‐Term Memory: A close look into agricultural commodity prices," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(4), pages 1406-1428, December.
    24. Traub, Lulama Ndibongo & Jayne, Thomas S., 2006. "The Effects of Market Reform on Maize Marketing Margins in South Africa: An Empirical Study," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25635, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    25. Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Tomek, William G., 2001. "Income-Enhancing And Risk-Reducing Properties Of Marketing Practices," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20613, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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