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Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries

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  • Christopher Barrett

Abstract

Price forecasting systems are of considerable importance to food security management by governments' and non-governmental organizations. Sparse data availability in low-income economies, however, generally necessitates reliance on reduced form forecasting methods. Relatively recent innovations in heteroscedasticity-consistent time series techniques offer price forecasting tools that are feasible given available data and analysis technologies in low-income economies. Moreover, extended GARCH models exhibit superior out-of-sample forecast accuracy using monthly food price data from Madagascar. These techniques also permit cost reduction in food security operations by more precise estimation of the risk of hitting a critical price level.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Barrett, 1997. "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 225-236.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:oxdevs:v:25:y:1997:i:2:p:225-236
    DOI: 10.1080/13600819708424131
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    Cited by:

    1. Shively, Gerald E., 2001. "Price thresholds, price volatility, and the private costs of investment in a developing country grain market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 399-414, August.
    2. Mude, Andrew G. & Barrett, Christopher B. & McPeak, John G. & Kaitho, Robert & Kristjanson, Patti, 2009. "Empirical forecasting of slow-onset disasters for improved emergency response: An application to Kenya's arid north," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 329-339, August.

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