Financialisation of Food Commodity Markets, Price Surge and Volatility: New Evidence
Recent literature points towards the role of speculators in exaggerating the rally in food prices, over and above that explained by the fundamentals of demand and supply. Some studies argue that futures market speculation can only be blamed for the increasing food prices if it is accompanied by hoarding. With this background, the issues that the present chapter deals with are: (i) assessing the impact of indices such as S&P500, and MSCI on commodity prices; and (ii) tracing the volatility patterns in commodity prices, and linking volatility in commodity markets to these variables.Our results show a negative relationship between the commodity market returns and the Dollex, and a positive relationship between commodity market returns and crude oil price returns. The impact of equity markets, inflation and emerging market performance on commodity markets is weak. We also find some evidence of reverse causality or mutual endogeneity, for instance, causality from GSCI, S&P500 and WTI to MSCI, CPI to WTI, and MSCI, S&P500 to Dollex. We also study the causal relationships between the volatility of returns on macroeconomic variables and commodity markets, using the cross-correlation function, and Granger causality tests. Our results confirm unidirectional relationship from (volatilities of) GSCI to S&P500, from GSCI to MSCI, and from Dollex to GSCI. But there is also evidence of atwo-way causality between Inflation and GSCI (volatilities). Thus, the case for financialisation of commodity/food markets driving commodity/food returns and their volatility rests on weak foundations, leaving the door open for the pivotal role of supply-demand fundamentals.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +81-(0)78 803 7036
Fax: +81-(0)78 803 7059
Web page: http://www.rieb.kobe-u.ac.jp/index-e.html
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Machiko Nissanke, 2012. "Commodity Market Linkages in the Global Financial Crisis: Excess Volatility and Development Impacts," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 732-750, June.
- Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Hernandez, Manuel & Torero, Maximo, 2010. "Examining the dynamic relationship between spot and future prices of agricultural commodities," IFPRI discussion papers 988, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Thorp, Susan, 2013.
"Financialization, crisis and commodity correlation dynamics,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money,
Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 42-65.
- Annastiina Silvennoinen & Susan Thorp, 2010. "Financialization, Crisis and Commodity Correlation Dynamics," Research Paper Series 267, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- J�rg Mayer, 2012. "The Growing Financialisation of Commodity Markets: Divergences between Index Investors and Money Managers," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 751-767, June.
- Nicole M. Aulerich & Scott H. Irwin & Philip Garcia, 2013.
"Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC's Daily Large Trader Data Files,"
NBER Working Papers
19065, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nicole M. Aulerich & Scott H. Irwin & Philip Garcia, 2013. "Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC's Daily Large Trader Data Files," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 211-253 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Chiang, Thomas C & Doong, Shuh-Chyi, 2001. " Empirical Analysis of Stock Returns and Volatility: Evidence from Seven Asian Stock Markets Based on TAR-GARCH Model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 301-18, November.
- Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. " Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-29, March.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
- Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "How important are fundamentals?--Evidence from a structural VAR model for the stock markets in the US, Japan and Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 185-201, April.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1996. "A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 33-48.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2013-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Office of Promoting Research Collaboration, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.