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Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets

  • Andrew McKenzie
  • Matthew Holt

Market efficiency and unbiasedness are tested in four agricultural commodity futures markets - live cattle, hogs, corn, and soybean meal - using cointegration and error correction models with GQARCH-in-mean processes. Results indicate each market is unbiased in the long run, although cattle, hogs and corn futures markets exhibit short-run inefficiencies and pricing biases. Models for cattle and corn outperform futures prices in out-of-sample forecasting. Results also suggest short-run time-varying risk premiums in cattle and hog futures markets.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2002)
Issue (Month): 12 ()
Pages: 1519-1532

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:34:y:2002:i:12:p:1519-1532
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