Efficiency Of Forest Commodity Futures Markets
Market efficiency and unbiasedness tests are performed for the first time for three forest commodity futures markets: softwood lumber, oriented strand board (OSB), and northern bleached softwood kraft pulp (NBSK). The Johansen cointegration procedure is applied to test long-term market efficiency, while the standard error correction models (ECM) and ECM with GQARCH-in-mean process are also used to examine short-term market efficiency and unbiasedness. Results show that these markets are inefficient and biased in both the long-term and short-term. Results also indicate that no short-term time-varying risk premiums are found in these commodity futures markets.
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