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Efficiency Of Forest Commodity Futures Markets

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  • He, Dequan
  • Holt, Matthew T.

Abstract

Market efficiency and unbiasedness tests are performed for the first time for three forest commodity futures markets: softwood lumber, oriented strand board (OSB), and northern bleached softwood kraft pulp (NBSK). The Johansen cointegration procedure is applied to test long-term market efficiency, while the standard error correction models (ECM) and ECM with GQARCH-in-mean process are also used to examine short-term market efficiency and unbiasedness. Results show that these markets are inefficient and biased in both the long-term and short-term. Results also indicate that no short-term time-varying risk premiums are found in these commodity futures markets.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Dequan & Holt, Matthew T., 2004. "Efficiency Of Forest Commodity Futures Markets," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20344, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea04:20344
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.20344
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    Cited by:

    1. Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2008. "Price discovery in a private cash forward market for lumber," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 73-89, January.
    2. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2005. "A Test of Forecast Consistency Using USDA Livestock Price Forecasts," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19042, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    3. Narinder Pal Singh & Archana Singh, 2017. "Empirical Investigation on Food Inflation and Efficiency Issues in Indian Agri-futures Market," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 3(2), pages 156-165, November.
    4. Ying-Foon Chow, 2001. "Arbitrage, Risk Premium, and Cointegration Tests of the Efficiency of Futures Markets," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5-6), pages 693-713.
    5. Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2006. "Contribution to Price Discovery in the Forest Product Market: Futures, Forwards, and Spot Markets," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21250, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2005. "Price Discovery in Private Cash Forward Markets - The Case of Lumber," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19049, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    7. Narinder Pal Singh & Archana Singh, 2018. "Global Financial Crisis and Price Risk Management in Gold Futures Market- Evidences from Indian & US Markets," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 21(68), pages 111-120, June.
    8. Lya Paola Sierra & Luis Eduardo Gir n & Carolina Osorio, 2017. "Has Financialization in Commodity Markets Affected the Predictability in Metal Markets? The Efficient Markets Hypotheses for Metal Returns," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 15-22.

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