Integration And Causality In International Freight Markets--Modeling With Error Correction And Directed Acyclic Graphs
Using Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG's) and Error Correction Models we study the dynamics of the notoriously volatile international freight prices that comprise the Baltic Panamax Index, the index on which freight futures trading is based. The DAG's are used to make definitive statements about the contemporaneous correlations between prices and allow us to address the construction of the data-determined orthoganization on contemporaneous innovation covariance, critical in providing sound inference in innovation accounting techniques. Our results provide a rich source of information on price discovery over various time horizons and suggest that the index may not be appropriately comprised and weighted.
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Phone: 301-405-1290|
Web page: http://www.arec.umd.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987.
"Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Veenstra, Albert Willem & Franses, Philip Hans, 1997. "A co-integration approach to forecasting freight rates in the dry bulk shipping sector," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 447-458, November.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Michael S. Haigh & Matthew T. Holt, 2000. "Hedging Multiple Price Uncertainty in International Grain Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 881-896.
- Geraci, Vincent J & Prewo, Wilfried, 1977. "Bilateral Trade Flows and Transport Costs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(1), pages 67-74, February.
- Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998.
"Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotics in nonstationary VARs,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 21-56.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1995. "Impulse Response and Forecast Error Variance Asymptotics in Nonstationary VAR's," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1102, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-56, September.
- Binkley, James K & Bessler, David A, 1983. "Expectations in Bulk Ocean Shipping: An Application of Autoregressive Modeling," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 516-20, August.
- Bertrand M. Roehner, 1996. "The Role of Transportation Costs in the Economics of Commodity Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 339-353.
- Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Nomikos, Nikos K., 2000. "Constant vs. time-varying hedge ratios and hedging efficiency in the BIFFEX market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 229-248, December.
- Hall, S G, 1986. "An Application of the Granger & Engle Two-Step Estimation Procedure to United Kingdom Aggregate Wage Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 229-39, August.
- Goodwin, Barry K. & Grennes, Thomas & Wohlgenant, Michael K., 1990. "Testing the law of one price when trade takes time," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 21-40, March.
- Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
- Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:umdrwp:28558. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.