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Integration And Causality In International Freight Markets--Modeling With Error Correction And Directed Acyclic Graphs

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  • Haigh, Michael S.
  • Nomikos, Nikos K.
  • Bessler, David A.

Abstract

Using Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG's) and Error Correction Models we study the dynamics of the notoriously volatile international freight prices that comprise the Baltic Panamax Index, the index on which freight futures trading is based. The DAG's are used to make definitive statements about the contemporaneous correlations between prices and allow us to address the construction of the data-determined orthoganization on contemporaneous innovation covariance, critical in providing sound inference in innovation accounting techniques. Our results provide a rich source of information on price discovery over various time horizons and suggest that the index may not be appropriately comprised and weighted.

Suggested Citation

  • Haigh, Michael S. & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Bessler, David A., 2002. "Integration And Causality In International Freight Markets--Modeling With Error Correction And Directed Acyclic Graphs," Working Papers 28558, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:umdrwp:28558
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Xiaojie, 2014. "Causality and Price Discovery in U.S. Corn Markets: An Application of Error Correction Modeling and Directed Acyclic Graphs," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169806, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. repec:pal:marecl:v:19:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1057_s41278-016-0053-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Peterson, Steven K. & Jessup, Eric L., 2007. "Transportation Infrastructure And Economic Activity: Evidence Using Vector Autoregression, Error Correction And Directed Acyclic Graphs," 48th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Boston, Massachusetts, March 15-17, 2007 207917, Transportation Research Forum.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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