IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v52y2017i2d10.1007_s00181-016-1094-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Contemporaneous causal orderings of US corn cash prices through directed acyclic graphs

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaojie Xu

    () (North Carolina State University)

Abstract

Abstract This study investigates dynamic relationships among US corn cash prices for the years 2006–2011. Using daily data from 182 markets in seven Midwestern states, an error correction model is estimated and directed acyclic graphs characterize the contemporaneous causal relationships among prices from different states. Empirical results based on the PC algorithm show that three states, Iowa, Ohio, and Minnesota, dominate corn cash prices. Four potential causal paths among the three states also are identified. Given that physical flows of grain are different at different times of the year, the data are divided into storage periods and harvest periods, and a VAR in differences is adopted to model the price relationships. While Iowa and Ohio continue to dominate corn prices during the storage period, the causal flows are mixed during the harvest period. An application of the LiNGAM algorithm refines the results relative to those derived from the PC algorithm and reveals that Iowa, the leading corn-producing state, is the only state that dominates pricing over the crop year.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaojie Xu, 2017. "Contemporaneous causal orderings of US corn cash prices through directed acyclic graphs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 731-758, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:52:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1094-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1094-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-016-1094-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2000. "The monetary model in the presence of I(2) components: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and forecasting of the Greek drachma," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 917-941, December.
    2. Jian Yang & David A. Bessler & David J. Leatham, 2001. "Asset storability and price discovery in commodity futures markets: A new look," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 279-300, March.
    3. Jian Yang & Zihui Yang & Yinggang Zhou, 2012. "Intraday price discovery and volatility transmission in stock index and stock index futures markets: Evidence from China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 99-121, February.
    4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    5. Yang, Jian & Bessler, David A. & Leatham, David J., 2000. "The Law Of One Price: Developed And Developing Country Market Integration," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    7. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
    8. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    9. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    10. Orden, David & Fisher, Lance A, 1993. "Financial Deregulation and the Dynamics of Money, Prices, and Output in New Zealand and Australia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 273-292, May.
    11. Pei-Chun Lai & David A. Bessler, 2015. "Price discovery between carbonated soft drink manufacturers and retailers: A disaggregate analysis with PC and LiNGAM algorithms," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 18, pages 173-198, May.
    12. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotics in nonstationary VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 21-56.
    13. Lutz, Clemens & van Tilburg, Aad & van der Kamp, Bertjan, 1995. "The Process of Short- and Long-Term Price Integration in the Benin Maize Market," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 22(2), pages 191-212.
    14. Peter S. Sephton, 2003. "Spatial Market Arbitrage and Threshold Cointegration," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 1041-1046.
    15. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1992. "Impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 53-78, January.
    16. Barry K. Goodwin & Nicholas E. Piggott, 2001. "Spatial Market Integration in the Presence of Threshold Effects," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 302-317.
    17. Michael S. Haigh & David A. Bessler, 2004. "Causality and Price Discovery: An Application of Directed Acyclic Graphs," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 1099-1121, October.
    18. Titus O. Awokuse & David A. Bessler, 2003. "Vector Autoregressions, Policy Analysis, and Directed Acyclic Graphs: An Application to the U.S. Economy," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6, pages 1-24, May.
    19. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    20. Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover, 2003. "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 745-767, December.
    21. David A. Bessler & Derya G. Akleman, 1998. "Farm Prices, Retail Prices, and Directed Graphs: Results for Pork and Beef," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1144-1149.
    22. Jian Yang, 2003. "Market Segmentation and Information Asymmetry in Chinese Stock Markets: A VAR Analysis," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 591-609, November.
    23. Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Market Reforms, Spatial Price Dynamics, and China's Rice Market Integration: A Causal Analysis with Directed Acyclic Graphs," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-19, April.
    24. David A Bessler & Jian Yang & Metha Wongcharupan, 2003. "Price Dynamics in the International Wheat Market: Modeling with Error Correction and Directed Acyclic Graphs," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 1-33.
    25. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    26. Jian Yang & David A. Bessler, 2004. "The International Price Transmission in Stock Index Futures Markets," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(3), pages 370-386, July.
    27. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    28. Kelvin Balcombe & Alastair Bailey & Jonathan Brooks, 2007. "Threshold Effects in Price Transmission: The Case of Brazilian Wheat, Maize, and Soya Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(2), pages 308-323.
    29. Henry L. Bryant & David A. Bessler & Michael S. Haigh, 2009. "Disproving Causal Relationships Using Observational Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 357-374, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corn; Error correction model; Cointegration; Causality; Price discovery; Graph theory;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:52:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1094-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.