Disproving Causal Relationships Using Observational Data
Economic theory is replete with causal hypotheses that are scarcely tested because economists are generally constrained to work with observational data. This article describes the use of causal inference methods for testing a hypothesis that one random variable causes another. Contingent on a sufficiently strong correspondence between the hypothesized cause and effect, an appropriately related third variable can be employed for such a test. The procedure is intuitive, and is easy to implement. The basic logic of the procedure naturally suggests strong and weak grounds for rejecting the hypothesized causal relationship. Monte Carlo results suggest that weakly-grounded rejections are unreliable for small samples, but reasonably reliable for large samples. Strongly-grounded rejections are highly reliable, even for small samples.
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202|
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2008.
"A Bootstrap Method for Identifying and Evaluating a Structural Vector Autoregression,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(4), pages 509-533, 08.
- Kevin Hoover & Selva Demiralp & Stephen J. Perez, 2006. "A Bootstrap Method for Identifying and Evaluating a Structural Vector Autoregression," Working Papers 614, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Hoover, Kevin D., 2005. "Automatic Inference Of The Contemporaneous Causal Order Of A System Of Equations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 69-77, February.
- Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover, 2003. "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 745-767, December.
- Kevin Hoover & Selva Demiralp, 2003. "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Working Papers 33, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Swanson, N.R. & Granger, C.W.J., 1994. "Impulse Response Functions Based on Causal Approach to Residual Orthogonalization in Vector Autoregressions," Papers 9-94-1, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Hoover,Kevin D., 2001. "Causality in Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521002882, December.
- Hoover,Kevin D., 2001. "Causality in Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521452175, December.
- Peltzman, Sam, 1975. "The Effects of Automobile Safety Regulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 677-725, August. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21166. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.