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A Bootstrap Method for Identifying and Evaluating a Structural Vector Autoregression

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  • Selva Demiralp
  • Kevin D. Hoover
  • Stephen J. Perez

Abstract

Graph‐theoretic methods of causal search based on the ideas of Pearl (2000), Spirtes et al. (2000), and others have been applied by a number of researchers to economic data, particularly by Swanson and Granger (1997) to the problem of finding a data‐based contemporaneous causal order for the structural vector autoregression, rather than, as is typically done, assuming a weakly justified Choleski order. Demiralp and Hoover (2003) provided Monte Carlo evidence that such methods were effective, provided that signal strengths were sufficiently high. Unfortunately, in applications to actual data, such Monte Carlo simulations are of limited value, as the causal structure of the true data‐generating process is necessarily unknown. In this paper, we present a bootstrap procedure that can be applied to actual data (i.e. without knowledge of the true causal structure). We show with an applied example and a simulation study that the procedure is an effective tool for assessing our confidence in causal orders identified by graph‐theoretic search algorithms.

Suggested Citation

  • Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2008. "A Bootstrap Method for Identifying and Evaluating a Structural Vector Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(4), pages 509-533, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:70:y:2008:i:4:p:509-533
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00496.x
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    13. Jian Yang & David A. Bessler, 2004. "The International Price Transmission in Stock Index Futures Markets," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(3), pages 370-386, July.
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    3. Fazal, Rizwan & Bhatti, M. Ishaq & Rehman, Atiq Ur, 2022. "Causality Analysis: The study of Size and Power based on riz-PC Algorithm of Graph Theoretic Approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
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    5. Timo Bettendorf & Reinhold Heinlein, 2023. "Connectedness between G10 currencies: Searching for the causal structure," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3938-3959, October.
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    8. Selva Demiralp & Kevin Hoover & Stephen Perez, 2014. "Still puzzling: evaluating the price puzzle in an empirically identified structural vector autoregression," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 701-731, March.
    9. Piyachart Phiromswad & Takeshi Yagihashi, 2016. "Empirical identification of factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 621-658, September.
    10. Bettendorf, Timo & Heinlein, Reinhold, 2019. "Connectedness between G10 currencies: Searching for the causal structure," Discussion Papers 06/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2023. "Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics: Higher for Longer," Working Papers 23-06R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 20 Jun 2023.
    12. Kevin D. Hoover, 2020. "The Discovery of Long-Run Causal Order: A Preliminary Investigation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-25, August.
    13. Chauvet, Marcelle & Tierney, Heather L. R., 2007. "Real Time Changes in Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 16199, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2009.
    14. Pu Chen & Chih-Ying Hsiao, 2010. "Causal Inference for Structural Equations: With an Application to Wage-Price Spiral," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 17-36, June.
    15. Henry L. Bryant & David A. Bessler & Michael S. Haigh, 2009. "Disproving Causal Relationships Using Observational Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 357-374, June.
    16. Phiromswad, Piyachart, 2015. "Measuring monetary policy with empirically grounded restrictions: An application to Thailand," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 104-113.
    17. Alessio Moneta & Doris Entner & Patrik O. Hoyer & Alex Coad, 2013. "Causal Inference by Independent Component Analysis: Theory and Applications," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 705-730, October.
    18. Rizwan Fazal & Syed Aziz Ur Rehman & Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti & Atiq Ur Rehman & Fariha Arooj & Umar Hayat, 2021. "A Cross-Sectoral Investigation of the Energy–Environment–Economy Causal Nexus in Pakistan: Policy Suggestions for Improved Energy Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, September.
    19. Wongboonsin, Kua & Phiromswad, Piyachart, 2017. "Searching for empirical linkages between demographic structure and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 364-379.
    20. Kevin Hoover, 2005. "Economic Theory and Causal Inference," Working Papers 64, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    21. Piyachart Phiromswad, 2014. "Measuring monetary policy with empirically grounded identifying restrictions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 681-699, March.
    22. Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "Supply Chains and Credit-Market Shocks: Some Implications for Emerging Markets," ADBI Working Papers 443, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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