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Integration and Causality in International Freight Markets: Modeling with Error Correction and Directed Acyclic Graphs


  • Michael S. Haigh

    () (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission)

  • Nikos K. Nomikos

    () (Faculty of Finance, Cass Business School, London)

  • David A. Bessler

    () (Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University)


Using directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and error correction models, we study the dynamics of freight prices that comprise the Baltic Panamax Index (BPI), the index on which freight futures trading was based. The DAGs are used to make statements about the contemporaneous correlations between prices and allow us to address the construction of the data-determined orthogonalization on contemporaneous innovation covariance, which is crucial in providing inference in innovation accounting techniques. Our results provide a source of information on price discovery and suggest that the index is not appropriately composed and weighted, which may help explain the failure of the Baltic International Freight Futures Exchange (BIFFEX) contract.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael S. Haigh & Nikos K. Nomikos & David A. Bessler, 2004. "Integration and Causality in International Freight Markets: Modeling with Error Correction and Directed Acyclic Graphs," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 145-162, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:71:1:y:2004:p:145-162

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2008. "A Bootstrap Method for Identifying and Evaluating a Structural Vector Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(4), pages 509-533, August.
    2. Xu, Xiaojie, 2014. "Causality and Price Discovery in U.S. Corn Markets: An Application of Error Correction Modeling and Directed Acyclic Graphs," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169806, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. repec:pal:marecl:v:19:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1057_s41278-016-0053-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Peterson, Steven K. & Jessup, Eric L., 2007. "Transportation Infrastructure And Economic Activity: Evidence Using Vector Autoregression, Error Correction And Directed Acyclic Graphs," 48th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Boston, Massachusetts, March 15-17, 2007 207917, Transportation Research Forum.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading


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