The 2004 Niger Food Crisis: What Role Can Price Discovery Play in Famine Early Warning Systems?
The 2005 food crisis centered in Niger received worldwide attention and extensive media coverage. Crops suffered from poor rainfall and were plagued by locusts throughout the growing season. Malnutrition flourished with the sudden disruption in food supplies. One-fifth of Niger's children suffered from moderate to severe forms of malnutrition by the summer of 2005. In an era of increased awareness and the introduction of famine early warning systems, the development community was left wondering why they were for the most part caught off guard by the food crisis. This paper tests whether market prices and price discovery could have played an active role in detecting the food crisis. Directed acyclic graphs are used to test whether price discovery mechanisms within Niger's millet markets were ahead of the early warning systems. Results suggest that as early as October 2005 markets in Arlit and the Dosso province had price anomalies that appeared to begin signaling the upcoming food crisis. This market based discovery came about two months earlier than the warnings issued by the regional early warning networks.
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202|
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Jayne, T. S. & Nuppenau, Ernst-August, 1993. "Maize market reform in Zimbabwe," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 308-315, August.
- Reusse, E., 1987. "Liberalization and agricultural marketing : Recent causes and effects in third world economies," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 299-317, November.
- Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 1992.
"Identification of the Long-Run and the Short-Run Structure: An Application to the ISLM Model,"
92-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
- Lutkepohl, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1992. "Impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 53-78, January.
- Jones, Stephen, 1995. "Food market reform: the changing role of the state," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 551-560, December.
- Putterman, Louis, 1995. "Economic reform and smallholder agriculture in Tanzania: A discussion of recent market liberalization, road rehabilitation, and technology dissemination efforts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 311-326, February.
- Pinckney, Thomas C., 1993. "Is market liberalization compatible with food security? : Storage, trade and price policies for maize in Southern Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 325-333, August.
- Bernanke, Ben S., 1986.
"Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- David A. Bessler & Derya G. Akleman, 1998. "Farm Prices, Retail Prices, and Directed Graphs: Results for Pork and Beef," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1144-1149.
- Dadi, Legesse & Negassa, Asfaw & Franzel, Steven, 1992. "Marketing maize and tef in western Ethiopia : Implications for policies following market liberalization," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 201-213, June.
- Swanson, N.R. & Granger, C.W.J., 1994. "Impulse Response Functions Based on Causal Approach to Residual Orthogonalization in Vector Autoregressions," Papers 9-94-1, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Dawe, David, 2001. "How far down the path to free trade? The importance of rice price stabilization in developing Asia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 163-175, April.
- Alston, Julian M. & Smith, Vincent H. & Acquaye, Albert K.A. & Hosseini, Safdar, 1999.
"Least-cost cheap-food policies: some implications of international food aid,"
Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists,
International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 20(3), May.
- Alston, Julian M. & Smith, Vincent H. & Acquaye, Albert & Hosseini, Safdar, 1999. "Least-cost cheap-food policies: some implications of international food aid," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 191-201, May.
- Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover, 2003.
"Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 745-767, December.
- Kevin Hoover & Selva Demiralp, 2003. "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Working Papers 33, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- David A. Bessler & Alpha Kergna, 2002. "Price Discovery: The Case of Millet in Bamako, Mali," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 11(4), pages 472-502, December.
- Barrett, Christopher B., 1997. "Food marketing liberalization and trader entry: Evidence from Madagascar," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 763-777, May.
- Sahn, David E. & Desai, Jaikishan, 1995. "The emergence of parallel markets in a transition economy: The case of Mozambique," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 83-98, April.
- Dembele, Niama Nango & Staatz, John M., 1999. "The Impact Of Market Reform On Agricultural Transformation In Mali," Staff Papers 11717, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
- Badiane, Ousmane & Shively, Gerald E., 1998. "Spatial integration, transport costs, and the response of local prices to policy changes in Ghana," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 411-431, August.
- Johansen, S., 1991.
"Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend,"
76a, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
- Juselius, Katarina, 1995. "Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September.
- Jayne, T. S. & Argwings-Kodhek, Gem, 1997. "Consumer response to maize market liberalization in urban Kenya," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 447-458, October.
- Jayne, T. S. & Govereh, J. & Mwanaumo, A. & Nyoro, J. K. & Chapoto, A., 2002. "False Promise or False Premise? The Experience of Food and Input Market Reform in Eastern and Southern Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 1967-1985, November.
- Goletti, Francesco & Babu, Suresh, 1994. "Market liberalization and integration of maize markets in Malawi," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 11(2-3), pages 311-324, December.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21316. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.