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The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure and Risk Premiums in Dry Bulk Shipping Freight Markets

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  • Manolis G. Kavussanos
  • Amir H. Alizadeh-M

Abstract

The availability of shipping freight contracts with different duration offers shipowners, operators, and charterers the choice to trade risk and return according to the characteristics that each of these contracts offers on the utility frontier. The aim of this paper is to investigate the expectations hypothesis of the term structure in the formation of period rates, which requires long-term charter rates to be a function of a series of short-term contracts within the life of a long-term contract. The paper uses a battery of tests to examine the validity of the expectations hypothesis for a variety of size categories and different length charter rates over the period January 1980 to August 1997. © The London School of Economics and the University of Bath 2002

Suggested Citation

  • Manolis G. Kavussanos & Amir H. Alizadeh-M, 2002. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure and Risk Premiums in Dry Bulk Shipping Freight Markets," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(2), pages 267-304, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpe:jtecpo:v:36:y:2002:i:2:p:267-304
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Amir H. Alizadeh & Nikos Nomikos, 2011. "An Investigation into the Effect of Risk Management on the Profitability of Shipping Investment and Operations," Chapters, in: Kevin Cullinane (ed.), International Handbook of Maritime Economics, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Alizadeh, Amir H., 2013. "Trading volume and volatility in the shipping forward freight market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 250-265.
    3. Prochazka, Vít & Adland, Roar & Wolff, François-Charles, 2019. "Contracting decisions in the crude oil transportation market: Evidence from fixtures matched with AIS data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 37-53.
    4. Ioannis Tsamourgelis & Persa Paflioti & Thomas Vitsounis, 2013. "Seaports Activity (A)synchronicity, Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Convergence: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), vol. 0(1), pages 67-92.
    5. Maitra, Debasish & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Oil price volatility and the logistics industry: Dynamic connectedness with portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    6. Axarloglou, Kostas & Visvikis, Ilias & Zarkos, Stefanos, 2013. "The time dimension and value of flexibility in resource allocation: The case of the maritime industry," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 35-48.
    7. Michael S. Haigh & Nikos K. Nomikos & David A. Bessler, 2004. "Integration and Causality in International Freight Markets: Modeling with Error Correction and Directed Acyclic Graphs," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(1), pages 145-162, July.
    8. Albert Veenstra & Jan van Dalen, 2011. "Fixtures-based Freight Rate Indices, and their Impact on Freight Rate Modelling in the Shipping Industry," Chapters, in: Kevin Cullinane (ed.), International Handbook of Maritime Economics, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Xu, Jane Jing & Yip, Tsz Leung & Marlow, Peter B., 2011. "The dynamics between freight volatility and fleet size growth in dry bulk shipping markets," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 983-991.
    10. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Talley, Wayne K., 2011. "Vessel and voyage determinants of tanker freight rates and contract times," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 665-675, September.
    11. Kou, Ying & Luo, Meifeng, 2018. "Market driven ship investment decision using the real option approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 714-729.
    12. Giamouzi, Maria & Nomikos, Nikos K, 2021. "Identifying shipowners’ risk attitudes over gains and losses: Evidence from the dry bulk freight market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    13. Tezuka, Koichiro & Ishii, Masahiro & Ishizaka, Motokazu, 2012. "An equilibrium price model of spot and forward shipping freight markets," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 730-742.
    14. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Nomikos, Nikos K., 2007. "Investment timing and trading strategies in the sale and purchase market for ships," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 126-143, January.
    15. Payman Eslami & Kihyo Jung & Daewon Lee & Amir Tjolleng, 2017. "Predicting tanker freight rates using parsimonious variables and a hybrid artificial neural network with an adaptive genetic algorithm," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(3), pages 538-550, August.
    16. M. Karanasos & J. Kim, 2003. "Moments of the ARMA--EGARCH model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 146-166, June.
    17. Haralambides, H.E. & Tsolakis, S.D. & Cridland, C., 2004. "3. Econometric Modelling Of Newbuilding And Secondhand Ship Prices," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 65-105, January.
    18. Adland, Roar & Alizadeh, Amir H., 2018. "Explaining price differences between physical and derivative freight contracts," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 20-33.
    19. Koekebakker, Steen & Adland, Roar & Sødal, Sigbjørn, 2007. "Pricing freight rate options," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 535-548, September.
    20. Amir H. Alizadeh & Roar Os Ådland & Steen Koekebakker, 2007. "Predictive power and unbiasedness of implied forward charter rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 385-403.
    21. Manolis Kavussanos & Nikos Nomikos, 2003. "Price Discovery, Causality and Forecasting in the Freight Futures Market," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 203-230, October.
    22. Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A., 2016. "Default risk drivers in shipping bank loans," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 71-94.
    23. Menelaos Karanasos & J. Kim, "undated". "Alternative GARCH in Mean Models: An Application to the Korean Stock Market," Discussion Papers 00/25, Department of Economics, University of York.
    24. Javier Población, 2017. "Are recent tanker freight rates stationary?," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(4), pages 650-666, December.
    25. Amir Alizadeh & Wayne Talley, 2011. "Microeconomic determinants of dry bulk shipping freight rates and contract times," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 561-579, May.

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