IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/5771.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Exchange Value of the Renminbi and China's Balance of Trade: An Emp irical Study

Author

Listed:
  • Zhaoyong Zhang

Abstract

This paper aims at assessing the relationship between the exchange value of the Chinese Renminbi (RMG) and China's trade balance by means of some recent econometric techniques designed to evaluate the existence and the direction of causality. We find strong evidence suggesting that changes in the trade balance and each of its components Granger-cause changes in the exchange rate but no evidence indicating a causal link running from the exchange rate to the trade balance. Our results seem to be rather supportive of the accommodative role of the exchange rate proposed by the modern theory of the trade balance determination and not supportive of the existence of a J-curve in China's trade balance. Our finding of a bidirectional causal relationship between the real exchange rate and the price variables confirms the presence of a vicious circle hypothesis following currency devaluation. This has important implications for the discussions of impacts of the RMB devaluation on China's trade balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhaoyong Zhang, 1996. "The Exchange Value of the Renminbi and China's Balance of Trade: An Emp irical Study," NBER Working Papers 5771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5771
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w5771.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Gruen, David W R & Wilkinson, Jenny, 1994. "Australia's Real Exchange Rate--Is It Explained by the Terms of Trade or by Real Interest Differentials?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(209), pages 204-219, June.
    3. David W. R. Gruen & Jenny Wilkinson, 1994. "Australia's Real Exchange Rate–Is it Explained by the Terms of Trade or by Real Interest Differentials?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(209), pages 204-219, June.
    4. Jeremy Greenwood, 1984. "Non-traded Goods, the Trade Balance, and the Balance of Payments," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 806-823, November.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Brada, Josef C & Kutan, Ali M & Zhou, Su, 1993. "China's Exchange Rate and the Balance of Trade," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 229-242.
    7. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    9. Razin, Assaf, 1984. "Capital movements, intersectoral resource shifts and the trade balance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(1-2), pages 135-152.
    10. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-397, August.
    12. Himarios, Daniel, 1989. "Do Devaluations Improve the Trade Balance? The Evidence Revisited," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(1), pages 143-168, January.
    13. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    14. Mr. Michael W. Bell & Ms. Kalpana Kochhar & Hoe Ee Khor, 1993. "China at the Threshold of a Market Economy," IMF Occasional Papers 1993/006, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    16. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Yin & Wan, Guanghua, 2007. "What accounts for China's trade balance dynamics?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 821-837.
    2. John Ryan, 2009. "China and the Global Roles of Currencies," Working Papers 2009.8, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    3. Zhang, Yin & Wan, Guanghua, 2008. "Correcting China's trade imbalance: Monetary means will not suffice," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 505-521.
    4. Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Ms. Valerie Cerra, 2002. "An Empirical Analysis of China's Export Behavior," IMF Working Papers 2002/200, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ignacio Mauleón & Raul Larrion, 2003. "Growth and the current account: Malaysia and Singapore," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 9(2), pages 140-151, May.
    6. Ryan, John, 2009. "China and the Reserve Currency Question," MPRA Paper 18218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2008. "The J-curve: evidence from commodity trade between US and China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(21), pages 2735-2747.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    2. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    3. de Meulemeester, Jean-Luc & Rochat, Denis, 1995. "A causality analysis of the link between higher education and economic development," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 351-361, December.
    4. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1997. "Can family-planning programs "cause" a significant fertility decline in countries characterized by very low levels of socioeconomic development? New evidence from Bangladesh based on dynamic," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 441-468, August.
    5. Maswana, Jean-Claude, 2006. "An empirical investigation around the finance-growth puzzle in China with a particular focus on causality and efficiency considerations," MPRA Paper 3946, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2006.
    6. Nieh, Chien-Chung & Yau, Hwey-Yun, 2004. "Time series analysis for the interest rates relationships among China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan money markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 171-188, February.
    7. Gilmore, Claire G. & McManus, Ginette M., 2002. "International portfolio diversification: US and Central European equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 69-83, March.
    8. Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1999. "Vector autoregressions," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,4, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    9. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Bagchi, Tapan P., 2013. "Effect of transportation infrastructure on economic growth in India: The VECM approach," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 139-148.
    10. Michael S. Haigh & Nikos K. Nomikos & David A. Bessler, 2004. "Integration and Causality in International Freight Markets: Modeling with Error Correction and Directed Acyclic Graphs," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(1), pages 145-162, July.
    11. de Jong, Pieter J. & Swanson, Peggy E., 2006. "The Euro deposit market in a global perspective," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 354-365, March.
    12. Chien-Chung Nieh & Hwey-Yun Yau & Ken Hung & Hong-Kou Ou & Shine Hung, 2013. "Cointegration and causal relationships among steel prices of Mainland China, Taiwan, and USA in the presence of multiple structural changes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 545-561, April.
    13. S. Gurcan Gulen, 1996. "Is OPEC a Cartel? Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 43-57.
    14. Elżbieta Szaruga & Elżbieta Załoga, 2022. "Environmental Management from the Point of View of the Energy Intensity of Road Freight Transport and Shocks," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-22, November.
    15. Yang Hou & Steven Li, 2013. "Price Discovery in Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: New Evidence Based on Intraday Data," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 20(1), pages 49-70, March.
    16. Shoesmith, Gary L., 1995. "Multiple cointegrating vectors, error correction, and forecasting with Litterman's model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 557-567, December.
    17. Paleologos J. & Georgantelis S., 2002. "Testing the Degree of Openness of the Greek Capital Account: A Cointegration Analysis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3-4), pages 59-70, July-Dece.
    18. Choi, Jongmoo Jay & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2007. "Financial factors in foreign direct investments: A dynamic analysis of international data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-18, January.
    19. Debabrata Bagchi & Georgios E. Chortareas & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "The Real Exchange Rate in Small, Open, Developed Economies: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(248), pages 76-88, March.
    20. Hsiang-Hsi Liu & Chien-Kuo Tseng, 2022. "Common Components in Co-integrated System and Its Estimation and Application: Evidence from Five Stock Markets in Asia-Pacific Chinese Region," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 101-121.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5771. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.