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Market Efficiency In Agricultural Futures Markets

  • McKenzie, Andrew M.
  • Holt, Matthew T.

This paper tests for both long run and short run market efficiency and unbiasedness in five agricultural futures markets. The possible existence of constant and time varying risk premia are taken into account using cointegration procedures and error correction models within a GARCH framework.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20933
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Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT with number 20933.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea98:20933
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  1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1987. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums,and the Theory of Storage," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 55-73, January.
  2. Sabuhoro, Jean Bosco & Larue, Bruno, 1997. "The market efficiency hypothesis: The case of coffee and cocoa futures," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 171-184, August.
  3. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  5. Anthony Mananyi & John J. Struthers, 1997. "Cocoa market efficiency: a cointegration approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 141-151, September.
  6. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1989. "Market efficiency and cointegration: an application to the sterling and deutschemark exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 75-88, March.
  7. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  8. Hall, S G, 1991. "The Effect of Varying Length VAR Models on the Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Cointegrating Vectors," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 38(4), pages 317-23, November.
  9. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 309-324, September.
  10. Moosa, Imad A. & Al-Loughani, Nabeel E., 1994. "Unbiasedness and time varying risk premia in the crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 99-105, April.
  11. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  12. Beck, Stacie E, 1993. "A Rational Expectations Model of Time Varying Risk Premia in Commodities Futures Markets: Theory and Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(1), pages 149-68, February.
  13. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
  14. Sabuhoro, Jean Bosco & Larue, Bruno, 1997. "The market efficiency hypothesis: the case of coffee and cocoa futures," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(3), August.
  15. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1996. "Time-Varying Risk Premia in the Foreign Currency Futures Basis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 281., Boston College Department of Economics.
  16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  17. Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 2002. "Determining the Order of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 18-24, January.
  18. French, Kenneth R, 1986. "Detecting Spot Price Forecasts in Futures Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages S39-54, April.
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