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Determinants of endogenous price risk in corn and wheat futures markets

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  • Barry K. Goodwin
  • Randy Schnepf

Abstract

This analysis evaluates determinants of price variability in U.S. corn and wheat futures markets. The analysis is conducted in two segments. In the first segment, conditional heteroscedasticity models of price variability are estimated and used to examine the extent to which market conditions influence price variability. The second component of the analysis uses nonstructural vector autoregressive models to evaluate factors related to implied volatilities calculated from options premia. Our results indicate that corn and wheat price variability is significantly related to the ratio of use to stocks, futures market activity, and growing conditions. In addition, important seasonal and autoregressive effects are revealed. Our results provide an intuitive interpretation for GARCH and ARCH effects, which are often demonstrated for futures price data. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:753–774, 2000

Suggested Citation

  • Barry K. Goodwin & Randy Schnepf, 2000. "Determinants of endogenous price risk in corn and wheat futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(8), pages 753-774, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:20:y:2000:i:8:p:753-774
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Nanying & Houston, Jack E., 2015. "The Co-movement between Non-GM and GM Soybean Price in China: Evidence from China Futures Market," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211914, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Karali, Berna & Ramirez, Octavio A., 2014. "Macro determinants of volatility and volatility spillover in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 413-421.
    3. Moraes, Marcelo & Chen, Rafael & Carauta, Katiucia & Yonenaga, William, 2015. "Dynamic risk assessment model to the corn production system in Mato Grosso, Brasil," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212474, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Andrew McKenzie & Matthew Holt, 2002. "Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1519-1532.
    5. Carlotta Penone & Samuele Trestini, 2022. "Testing for asymmetric cointegration of Italian agricultural commodities prices: Evidence from the futures-spot market relationship," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 68(2), pages 50-58.
    6. Sarker, Rakhal & Oyewumi, Olubukola Ayodeji, 2015. "Trade Policy Change And Price Volatility Spill-Over In A Customs Union: A Case Study Of Lamb Trade Between Namibia And South Africa," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(1), pages 1-14, January.
    7. Jason Loughrey & Fiona Thorne & Thia Hennessy, 2016. "A Microsimulation Model for Risk in Irish Tillage Farming," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(2), pages 41-76.
    8. Nanying Wang & Jack E. Houston, 2016. "The Co-Movement between Non-GM and GM Soybean Prices in China: Evidence from Dalian Futures Market (2004-2014)," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 37-47, November.
    9. Aaron Smith, 2005. "Partially overlapping time series: a new model for volatility dynamics in commodity futures," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 405-422, March.
    10. Aliaga Lordemann, Javier & Mora-García, Claudio & Mulder, Nanno, 2021. "Speculation and price volatility in the coffee market," Documentos de Proyectos 46923, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    11. Cagatay Basarir & Mehmet Fatih Bayramoglu, 2018. "Global Macroeconomic Determinants of the Domestic Commodity Derivatives," Contributions to Economics, in: Hasan Dincer & Ümit Hacioglu & Serhat Yüksel (ed.), Global Approaches in Financial Economics, Banking, and Finance, chapter 0, pages 331-349, Springer.
    12. Sania Wadud & Robert D. Durand & Marc Gronwald, 2021. "Connectedness between the Crude Oil Futures and Equity Markets during the Pre- and Post-Financialisation Eras," CESifo Working Paper Series 9202, CESifo.

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