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Unbiasedness and Market Efficiency Tests of the U.S. Rice Futures Market

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew M. McKenzie
  • Bingrong Jiang
  • Harjanto Djunaidi
  • Linwood A. Hoffman
  • Eric J. Wailes

Abstract

This study examines short-run and long-run unbiasedness within the U.S. rice futures market. Standard OLS, cointegration, and error-correction models are used to determine unbiasedness. In addition, the forecasting performance of the rice futures market is analyzed and compared to out-of-sample forecasts derived from an additive ARIMA model and the error-correction model. The results of our unbiasedness tests and the forecasting performance of the rice futures market provide supporting evidence that the U.S. long-grain rough rice futures market is efficient. The results have important price risk management and price discovery implications for Arkansas and U.S. rice industry participants. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew M. McKenzie & Bingrong Jiang & Harjanto Djunaidi & Linwood A. Hoffman & Eric J. Wailes, 2002. "Unbiasedness and Market Efficiency Tests of the U.S. Rice Futures Market," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 474-493.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revage:v:24:y:2002:i:2:p:474-493
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1467-9353.00032
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    Cited by:

    1. Shernaz Bodhanwala & Harsh Purohit & Nidhi Choudhary, 2020. "The Causal Dynamics in Indian Agriculture Commodity Prices and Macro-Economic Variables in the Presence of a Structural Break," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 241-261, February.
    2. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2005. "A Test of Forecast Consistency Using USDA Livestock Price Forecasts," 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri 19042, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    3. Andrew M. McKenzie & Jessica L. Darby, 2017. "Information Content of USDA Rice Reports and Price Reactions of Rice Futures," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 552-568, September.
    4. Natanelov, Valeri & Alam, Mohammad J. & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2011. "Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4971-4984, September.
    5. Roseli da Silva & Rodrigo Takeuchi, 2008. "Uma análise empírica de eficiência relativa nos mercados futuro e à vista de açúcar," Working Papers 08_06, Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto.
    6. Anthony Becker & Rebecca Judge, 2014. "Evidence of Distortionary Effects of Decoupled Payments in U.S. Indica Rice Production," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 42(3), pages 265-275, September.
    7. Li, Jia & Hanrahan, Kevin F. & McErlean, Seamus, 2004. "The Efficiency Of The Futures Market For Agricultural Commodities In The Uk," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20203, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Tondel, Fabien & Maynard, Leigh J., 2004. "Is The Thinly-Traded Butter Futures Contract Priced Efficiently?," 2004 Annual Meeting, February 14-18, 2004, Tulsa, Oklahoma 34684, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    9. Pei Xu & Srini Konduru & Jaiyen Vikram Shetty & Aaralyn Vang & Thiago Vasconcelos Melo, 2025. "International Market Demand for California Raisins: A Time Series Analysis," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 20(2), pages 152-152, August.
    10. McCullough, Kerry & Strydom, Barry, 2013. "The efficiency of the South African white maize futures market," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 52(3), March.
    11. Jabir Ali & Kriti Bardhan Gupta, 2011. "Efficiency in agricultural commodity futures markets in India," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 71(2), pages 162-178, August.
    12. repec:kap:iaecre:v:15:y:2009:i:4:p:470-482 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Sung No & Michael Salassi, 2009. "A Sequential Rationality Test of USDA Preliminary Price Estimates for Selected Program Crops: Rice, Soybeans, and Wheat," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 15(4), pages 470-482, November.
    14. Takeshi Inoue & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2014. "Market Efficiency of Commodity Futures in India," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: INDIAN ECONOMY Empirical Analysis on Monetary and Financial Issues in India, chapter 6, pages 73-85, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. repec:ags:ijag24:345253 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Kim, Man-Keun & Tejeda, Hernan & Yu, T. Edward, 2017. "U.S. milled rice markets and integration across regions and types," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 20(5).

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