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Market efficiency of commodity futures in India

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  • Inoue, Takeshi
  • Hamori, Shigeyuki

Abstract

This paper aims to examine the market efficiency of the commodity futures market in India, which has been growing phenomenally for the last few years. We estimate the long-run equilibrium relationship between the multi-commodity futures and spot prices and then test for market efficiency in a weak form sense by applying both the DOLS and the FMOLS methods. The entire sample period is from 2 January 2006 to 31 March 2011. The results indicate that a cointegrating relationship is found between these indices and that the commodity futures market seems to be efficient only during the more recent sub-sample period since July 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Inoue, Takeshi & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Market efficiency of commodity futures in India," IDE Discussion Papers 370, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper370
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jabir Ali & Kriti Bardhan Gupta, 2011. "Efficiency in agricultural commodity futures markets in India: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 71(2), pages 162-178, August.
    2. H. Holly Wang & Bingfan Ke, 2005. "Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(2), pages 125-141, June.
    3. Andrew M. McKenzie & Bingrong Jiang & Harjanto Djunaidi & Linwood A. Hoffman & Eric J. Wailes, 2002. "Unbiasedness and Market Efficiency Tests of the U.S. Rice Futures Market," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 474-493.
    4. Neil Kellard, 2002. "Evaluating Commodity Market Efficiency: Are Cointegration Tests Appropriate?," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 513-529.
    5. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    7. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 23-42, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:spr:jqecon:v:16:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s40953-017-0074-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:jrpoli:v:53:y:2017:i:c:p:135-146 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:eee:phsmap:v:483:y:2017:i:c:p:182-192 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eco:journ1:2017-04-03 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    India; Financial market; Primary commodities; Prices; Futures markets; Commodity futures; Efficiency;

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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