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Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China


  • Wang, H. Holly
  • Ke, Bingfan


The efficiency of the Chinese wheat and soybean futures markets is studied. Formal statistical tests were conducted based on Johansen’s cointegration approach for three different cashmarkets and six different futures forecasting horizons ranging from1 week to 4 months.The results suggest a long-termequilibrium relationship between the futures price and cash price for soybeans and weak short-term efficiency in the soybean futures market. The futures market for wheat is inefficient, which may be caused by overspeculation and government intervention.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, H. Holly & Ke, Bingfan, 2005. "Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(2), June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:118441

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    8. Andrew McKenzie & Matthew Holt, 2002. "Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1519-1532.
    9. Psaradakis, Zacharias, 1994. "A comparison of tests of linear hypotheses in cointegrated vector autoregressive models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 137-144, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "On the short- and long-run efficiency of energy and precious metal markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 832-844.
    2. Singh, N.P. & Kumar, Ranjit & Singh, R.P. & Jain, Praveen Kumar, 2005. "Is Futures Market Mitigating Price Risk: An Exploration of Wheat and Maize Market," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 18(2005).
    3. Jia, Rui-Lin & Wang, Dong-Hua & Tu, Jing-Qing & Li, Sai-Ping, 2016. "Correlation between agricultural markets in dynamic perspective—Evidence from China and the US futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 464(C), pages 83-92.
    4. Wen-Ge Fu & Sizhong Sun & Zhang-Yue Zhou, 2011. "Technical efficiency of food processing in China: the case of flour and rice processing," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 321-334, September.
    5. Joseph, Anto & Sisodia, Garima & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2014. "A frequency domain causality investigation between futures and spot prices of Indian commodity markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 250-258.
    6. Yang Hou & Steven Li, 2013. "Price Discovery in Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: New Evidence Based on Intraday Data," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 20(1), pages 49-70, March.
    7. Shi Zheng & Pei Xu & Zhigang Wang, 2011. "Factors affecting Chinese enterprises' hedging decision making," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 476-488, November.
    8. Jerry Coakley & Jian Dollery & Neil Kellard, 2011. "Long memory and structural breaks in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(11), pages 1076-1113, November.
    9. repec:ddj:fserec:y:2012:p:31-34 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Algieri, Bernardina & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2014. "Back to the Futures: An Assessment of Commodity Market Efficiency and Forecast Error Drivers," Discussion Papers 187159, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    11. Takeshi Inoue & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2014. "Market efficiency of commodity futures in India," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(8), pages 522-527, May.
    12. Liu, Qingfu & Wong, Ieokhou & An, Yunbi & Zhang, Jinqing, 2014. "Asymmetric Information and Volatility Forecasting in Commodity Futures Markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 79-97.
    13. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:567-588 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Jabir Ali & Kriti Bardhan Gupta, 2011. "Efficiency in agricultural commodity futures markets in India: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 71(2), pages 162-178, August.
    15. Yuanlong Ge & Holly H. Wang & Sung K. Ahn, 2010. "Cotton market integration and the impact of China's new exchange rate regime," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(5), pages 443-451, September.
    16. Wani, M.H. & Paul, Ranjit Kumar & Bazaz, Naseer H. & Manzoor, M., 2015. "Market integration and Price Forecasting of Apple in India," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 70(2).
    17. repec:eco:journ2:2017-06-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Mazouz, Khelifa & Wang, Jian, 2014. "Are commodity futures markets short-term efficient? An empirical investigation," 88th Annual Conference, April 9-11, 2014, AgroParisTech, Paris, France 169763, Agricultural Economics Society.
    19. Pankaj Kumar GUPTA & Sunita RAVI, 2012. "Commodity Market Inefficiencies and Inflationary Pressures - India’s Economic Policy Dilemma," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 31-38.
    20. Wang, Nanying & Houston, Jack, 2015. "An intervention analysis on the relationship between futures prices of non-GM and GM contract soybeans in China," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196842, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.


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