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Stochastic Interest Rates and Price Discovery in Selected Commodity Markets

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  • Hector O. Zapata
  • T. RANDALL FORTENBERY

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Abstract

The temporal relationship between Chicago corn and soybean cash prices, nearby futures prices, and interest rates is examined using daily 1980-1989 data. Johansen cointegration tests suggest joint movement of the three series over the data period considered. In addition, analyses of individual crop years, which is consistent with previous work, shows co-movement between cash, futures, and interest rates in years when bivariate cointegration between cash and futures prices was not found. The results provide initial empirical evidence that a potential limitation of previous research in the study of cash- futures simple efficiency has been the exclusion of the interest rate as a common stochastic factor explaining equilibrium in models of cash and futures prices.
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Suggested Citation

  • Hector O. Zapata & T. RANDALL FORTENBERY, 1995. "Stochastic Interest Rates and Price Discovery in Selected Commodity Markets," Wisconsin-Madison Agricultural and Applied Economics Staff Papers 383, Wisconsin-Madison Agricultural and Applied Economics Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:wop:wisaes:383
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
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    5. Naik, Gopal & Leuthold, Raymond M., 1991. "A Note On The Factors Affecting Corn Basis Relationships," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), July.
    6. Baillie, Richard T & Myers, Robert J, 1991. "Bivariate GARCH Estimation of the Optimal Commodity Futures Hedge," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 109-124, April-Jun.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Kitchen, John & Denbaly, Mark, 1987. "Arbitrage Conditions, Interest Rates, and Commodity Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, issue 2.
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    12. G. Edward Schuh, 1974. "The Exchange Rate and U. S. Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-13.
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    14. T. Randall Fortenbery & Hector O. Zapata, 1993. "An examination of cointegration relations between futures and local grain markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(8), pages 921-932, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jerry Coakley & Jian Dollery & Neil Kellard, 2011. "Long memory and structural breaks in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(11), pages 1076-1113, November.
    2. Xu, Xiaojie, 2014. "Price Discovery in U.S. Corn Cash and Futures Markets: The Role of Cash Market Selection," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169809, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. repec:wyi:journl:002103 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. H. Holly Wang & Bingfan Ke, 2005. "Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 49(2), pages 125-141, June.
    5. Bozic, Marin, 2011. "Three essays in commodity futures and options price performance," Faculty Theses and Dissertations 160678, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    6. Ling-Yun He & Wen-Si Xie, 2012. "Who has the final say?: Market power versus price discovery in China's sugar spot and futures markets," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 379-390, August.
    7. Shihabudheen, M.T. & Padhi, Puja, 2010. "Price Discovery and Volatility Spillover Effect in Indian Commodity Market," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 65(1).

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